***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.03.2021.-07.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.1 57.6 55.8 -0.8 0.2 2.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 0.8 0.4 1.1 1.1 57.9 56.8 -0.7 0.3 1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 2.6 2.8 1.5 1.2 57.5 57.3 1.1 2.1 3.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 -3.7 -1.7 -0.8 1.5 58.2 58.7 -5.4 -4.3 -1.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 1.4 58.0 58.1 -1.6 -0.6 0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 -1.2 -0.9 -2.2 1.7 58.0 60.7 -2.9 -1.6 0.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 0.8 0.6 1.0 1.1 57.5 56.1 -0.5 0.3 1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 45 55 100 -4.3 -4.7 -1.7 2.0 63.0 64.4 -7.8 -5.3 -4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 1.0 0.8 0.0 1.5 60.9 59.5 -0.8 0.6 1.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 0.5 0.6 -1.2 1.8 61.9 62.5 -0.4 -0.1 1.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 0.3 0.5 -0.6 1.5 59.0 59.8 -1.2 -0.2 1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 -0.8 -0.7 -1.1 1.7 60.1 61.1 -2.0 -1.2 0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 -0.2 -0.1 -1.4 1.4 57.2 59.3 -1.2 -0.7 1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 1.2 1.9 0.0 1.7 62.9 61.6 0.2 0.7 2.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 1.0 0.9 0.2 1.2 55.5 56.9 -1.1 0.6 2.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 1.0 0.9 -1.1 1.4 57.2 59.0 -0.7 0.4 1.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 58.0 57.0 -0.4 0.6 1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 -1.1 -0.6 -1.6 1.9 64.5 63.9 -2.6 -1.5 -0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.2 58.7 57.8 -0.3 0.6 1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 -2.5 -2.8 -2.9 2.0 64.6 64.8 -5.7 -4.2 -2.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 0.6 0.4 1.0 1.2 56.7 56.9 -0.7 0.2 1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 59.5 58.1 -1.0 0.4 1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.3 59.8 59.2 -1.1 0.0 1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 0.3 1.0 0.0 1.7 63.0 61.4 -0.9 -0.1 1.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 0.1 -0.1 0.4 1.1 56.2 55.2 -0.7 -0.3 1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 0.2 0.5 -1.6 1.5 58.1 59.8 -1.5 -0.2 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 1.1 0.6 0.8 1.0 56.8 55.0 -0.8 0.5 1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 -0.9 -0.5 -0.6 1.4 56.2 57.7 -2.4 -1.3 0.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 -0.8 -0.3 -2.1 2.1 65.6 66.1 -3.8 -2.2 -0.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.1 57.9 56.6 -0.7 0.7 1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------