***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2021.-28.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.8 63.1 65.2 -2.1 0.3 1.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 -0.9 -0.3 1.1 1.8 61.3 63.5 -3.0 -1.3 0.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 3.1 2.0 1.6 2.1 66.9 68.5 -0.8 0.7 1.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 -1.6 -0.2 0.2 3.1 79.7 79.1 -7.0 -5.9 -3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.7 75.5 75.5 -2.8 -1.1 0.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 -0.5 -0.3 -1.3 2.5 73.6 75.2 -3.5 -1.6 -0.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 -0.6 -0.1 1.0 1.7 59.5 62.7 -2.9 -0.9 0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 -4.2 -3.3 -1.0 2.9 81.5 80.6 -10.3 -7.9 -4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 1.1 1.4 0.4 2.3 72.6 72.5 -2.7 -0.2 1.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 0.8 1.2 -0.6 2.7 77.9 76.9 -1.9 -0.7 0.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 0.6 0.8 0.1 2.2 71.6 71.2 -2.0 -0.4 0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 2.4 73.6 74.0 -3.3 -1.5 -0.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 -0.2 -0.1 -0.9 1.6 61.9 63.3 -1.9 -0.4 0.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 1.6 2.3 0.3 2.8 77.3 75.2 -1.7 -1.2 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 0.5 -0.1 0.6 1.8 64.2 66.7 -1.8 -0.6 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 1.2 1.3 -0.4 2.1 69.6 69.3 -1.5 0.3 1.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 0.9 0.1 1.2 2.1 64.7 66.2 -2.5 -1.2 0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 12 88 100 -1.3 -0.1 -0.4 3.5 85.8 85.2 -4.3 -3.0 -1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 0.3 0.3 1.2 2.0 65.6 66.8 -2.9 -1.3 0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 -2.5 -2.0 -1.4 3.6 84.4 84.1 -9.0 -4.8 -2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 0.7 0.5 1.1 2.0 64.8 67.6 -2.4 -0.1 0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 0.3 0.0 1.3 2.1 65.0 66.7 -2.4 -1.5 0.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.4 73.7 73.1 -3.0 -1.6 0.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 0.4 1.1 0.6 2.8 78.1 77.2 -2.7 -1.5 0.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 0.6 0.1 1.1 2.1 67.0 68.3 -1.9 -0.5 0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 0.8 0.8 -0.7 2.3 71.7 73.5 -2.0 -0.8 0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 -0.1 0.8 0.9 1.5 60.2 61.8 -2.9 -0.4 1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 -0.7 -0.4 0.2 2.5 72.3 73.5 -4.4 -1.7 -1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 -0.7 1.0 -1.1 3.5 85.4 84.5 -6.1 -4.6 -1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 -0.4 0.5 1.2 1.8 62.3 64.9 -2.7 -0.8 0.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------