***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2016.-20.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 37.4 53.8 65.6 155.9 88.0 75.3 18.0 26.5 36.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 45.2 58.7 62.9 154.9 86.6 75.8 15.3 28.6 34.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 51.8 69.8 64.4 148.3 82.8 72.3 24.1 36.9 54.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 52.2 59.9 69.1 132.3 73.6 65.8 26.1 36.2 54.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 48.1 54.5 70.9 135.4 74.9 68.3 28.3 36.2 49.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 44.4 46.8 69.2 121.5 70.6 64.8 23.6 34.7 42.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 34.2 48.4 62.4 154.6 86.4 76.0 19.2 26.3 35.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 72.5 73.2 71.2 126.0 72.7 64.4 53.9 65.1 71.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 40.3 43.2 67.7 130.1 73.9 65.9 22.4 32.3 40.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 47.4 50.8 71.2 126.4 72.6 64.6 32.3 37.5 41.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 34.9 40.7 61.7 124.3 67.2 62.9 23.3 32.4 40.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 44.8 46.0 60.8 123.5 70.4 63.2 27.4 34.3 43.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 49.3 51.5 65.8 124.3 72.3 66.2 28.8 36.5 48.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 68.0 88.3 78.9 145.8 84.9 72.5 37.2 46.7 64.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 58.7 65.6 66.1 135.4 73.6 67.1 16.2 27.9 52.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 42.9 41.9 62.2 123.3 68.7 64.0 28.1 32.0 39.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 36.3 50.7 61.1 153.0 85.8 76.2 19.1 26.0 35.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 51.4 63.4 80.7 132.2 79.2 68.9 25.1 35.2 43.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 43.2 53.2 63.5 153.2 85.2 74.2 21.1 31.3 40.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 49.1 54.5 101.7 138.9 82.7 72.2 26.3 38.2 41.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 46.1 54.3 65.1 138.5 75.1 68.3 20.2 32.1 48.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 40.9 50.8 63.2 151.2 84.4 74.9 19.6 26.6 37.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 42.5 52.0 65.5 148.8 84.0 71.8 19.8 27.8 38.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 57.3 65.8 73.3 137.7 78.7 69.6 34.0 42.3 62.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 47.2 59.1 78.0 151.8 85.0 75.2 21.5 30.3 48.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 42.8 46.7 67.7 129.5 74.5 68.8 22.9 31.5 41.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 45.0 66.6 74.1 156.1 88.9 77.0 18.1 28.3 36.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 48.4 55.2 64.9 128.2 71.0 64.8 15.6 24.9 40.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 77.7 86.5 89.2 137.2 83.1 71.4 45.3 60.9 69.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 43.4 53.5 63.5 154.9 86.4 75.2 17.0 33.8 40.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------