***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.03.2016.-20.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 6.0 6.7 14.1 132.2 72.9 62.8 1.1 3.4 5.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 7.9 9.8 13.4 134.6 72.6 63.3 1.2 2.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 10.9 12.9 14.2 130.8 73.4 62.8 2.8 4.7 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 12.4 13.2 18.0 130.2 71.8 61.1 4.0 6.9 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 12.3 12.9 16.5 120.9 69.8 59.4 4.1 7.9 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.7 9.6 17.4 111.7 64.0 54.3 1.8 5.6 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 8.5 7.6 13.1 129.5 70.8 61.8 1.2 3.3 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 9.0 21.5 14.7 103.9 64.7 54.7 7.4 15.5 22.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 11.0 10.0 15.7 118.7 68.5 58.8 4.0 7.6 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 16.0 17.4 15.6 110.8 67.5 56.8 6.2 10.8 17.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.8 14.5 14.0 108.7 68.1 56.1 2.5 7.2 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.1 13.2 13.0 102.9 63.0 53.2 4.2 5.5 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.2 11.5 15.4 110.2 61.6 54.5 3.6 6.4 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.9 11.9 16.9 128.3 70.8 60.9 4.1 9.0 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 7.7 7.9 16.7 130.0 73.6 60.3 0.5 1.2 3.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.9 8.4 14.7 110.3 63.6 55.3 3.6 5.7 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 7.1 9.0 12.5 131.4 72.9 62.1 0.2 2.5 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 14.7 14.1 17.1 114.9 67.6 57.4 3.0 8.7 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 8.0 9.5 13.7 135.5 72.8 63.4 1.0 2.8 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.7 12.7 19.5 112.6 64.2 56.4 3.6 8.9 13.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 9.2 9.9 14.9 125.8 72.1 61.1 3.7 7.4 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 4.3 10.8 12.7 129.4 73.0 60.9 0.6 1.5 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 8.8 9.8 14.2 132.2 72.2 61.8 1.4 2.4 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 16.5 15.9 16.1 122.1 71.4 59.8 4.5 11.1 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 8.0 8.8 17.5 133.9 73.6 62.4 1.2 4.8 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.9 9.1 15.1 108.5 61.4 54.1 2.6 6.3 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 9.0 10.3 16.0 132.7 73.3 62.5 1.6 4.4 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 8.4 8.9 17.2 126.1 71.4 59.5 0.6 2.2 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 26.7 28.7 18.2 116.9 67.7 57.6 4.5 16.3 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 6.6 7.6 13.7 134.3 72.4 63.2 1.3 3.1 6.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------