***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.03.2016.-13.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 6.4 7.1 16.3 141.9 76.6 60.5 1.0 4.8 6.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 4.7 6.1 15.4 143.9 78.0 64.2 0.7 1.5 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 8.7 9.6 15.8 133.8 74.2 59.3 1.3 4.5 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.3 12.6 19.3 139.5 72.9 57.5 4.6 8.1 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 6.5 9.5 18.5 127.7 68.1 54.0 0.7 4.9 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.4 5.1 17.8 112.6 58.5 54.3 1.6 4.3 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 6.7 10.0 15.3 147.0 80.9 64.8 0.8 2.2 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.8 19.4 19.2 126.6 67.3 55.4 6.6 13.9 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 5.5 6.6 17.9 121.6 66.0 52.8 0.7 3.4 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.0 7.6 18.8 120.5 65.9 53.2 0.8 5.0 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.1 8.7 16.4 121.8 67.4 53.6 1.1 5.9 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.4 9.4 16.2 125.3 68.0 55.2 0.3 4.8 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.0 17.0 119.0 64.7 55.5 1.8 5.8 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 7.6 11.1 17.8 119.0 67.2 56.6 2.6 3.5 10.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.5 10.7 18.1 140.0 73.0 59.1 2.2 4.3 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.9 10.3 16.3 120.8 65.1 55.0 1.4 7.7 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 5.7 7.2 15.2 144.4 78.6 64.6 0.9 2.2 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 1.8 6.7 20.2 118.1 65.5 54.0 1.4 3.8 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 9.4 11.1 15.3 138.8 75.8 62.7 1.1 4.3 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 5.1 8.3 26.0 129.8 69.5 58.8 1.1 3.6 7.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 4.8 5.9 16.7 128.2 69.7 55.5 1.1 2.6 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 5.0 6.7 15.7 139.2 77.6 63.8 0.5 1.0 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 10.1 11.2 15.3 129.5 73.2 60.0 0.4 1.9 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 2.2 8.6 17.6 118.5 66.6 55.0 1.2 4.4 8.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 7.6 9.0 19.7 139.4 75.6 59.7 0.4 4.4 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 1.1 4.9 16.5 121.0 65.7 57.0 0.7 2.3 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 6.8 7.4 18.4 141.6 77.7 61.5 1.2 5.6 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.2 9.4 17.9 133.6 70.7 57.3 1.6 4.1 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 3.9 10.7 21.8 119.8 66.7 55.5 3.6 8.1 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 8.4 11.8 15.5 143.0 78.8 63.3 0.7 2.5 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------