***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.02.2016.-06.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 15.7 21.3 18.0 203.2 84.4 75.0 3.6 6.1 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 14.4 18.5 17.8 189.5 84.9 74.4 5.3 9.4 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 19.6 28.0 17.4 187.0 84.4 71.9 5.1 10.5 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 16.3 18.9 17.2 174.9 75.3 67.3 5.4 8.7 15.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 17.0 20.1 18.4 173.9 77.4 69.7 5.4 9.2 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 11.4 14.5 18.2 138.1 76.1 64.9 3.2 5.2 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 13.8 16.6 18.0 191.9 84.2 75.0 2.6 7.4 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 26.4 30.4 20.0 155.3 76.1 67.0 12.8 17.8 27.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 13.7 16.5 18.1 165.7 77.2 67.6 4.3 6.7 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 15.7 16.8 19.2 156.2 76.0 66.4 8.4 12.6 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 12.4 15.8 16.2 156.6 75.5 66.0 3.0 5.8 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 11.8 14.2 16.8 153.2 76.3 66.8 3.1 6.9 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 11.7 12.1 17.4 148.2 75.9 66.7 3.9 7.2 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 23.3 31.7 21.0 169.8 84.0 68.7 10.0 15.6 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 18.5 23.1 18.6 188.4 79.0 73.1 1.1 6.0 14.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 13.6 16.2 16.2 151.2 75.7 66.9 1.5 7.3 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 11.1 14.2 17.5 183.5 83.6 74.3 2.9 6.4 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 15.1 17.5 21.9 157.0 78.7 68.6 7.3 10.3 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 14.8 21.1 17.5 186.4 84.8 73.1 4.0 7.6 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 16.1 19.7 29.6 166.1 80.6 71.8 4.3 9.4 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 17.2 20.8 17.0 175.7 79.4 68.8 3.0 7.4 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 11.9 13.5 17.5 174.3 79.6 72.9 5.1 8.9 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 12.4 22.4 17.6 180.5 83.7 70.4 3.7 7.6 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 20.1 25.5 19.6 166.7 81.7 68.7 9.1 11.8 19.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 15.9 24.2 21.1 202.2 83.3 75.9 2.3 9.6 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 13.6 17.6 19.0 158.3 81.0 69.3 2.4 6.1 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 13.3 22.5 20.5 204.7 85.3 76.4 2.4 5.4 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 15.4 18.9 16.8 167.8 76.0 68.3 2.1 4.3 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 21.9 24.3 24.6 158.1 78.1 69.5 12.1 15.8 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 16.9 24.5 17.9 192.8 85.2 74.1 4.2 7.1 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------