***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2016.-28.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 11.5 15.7 17.3 155.6 78.0 67.4 1.6 4.1 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 9.6 11.9 16.2 154.6 76.9 67.0 1.2 4.0 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 7.3 17.2 17.1 148.4 79.6 65.9 2.3 5.5 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 8.2 9.0 14.5 99.3 61.5 54.7 2.2 4.5 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 10.9 14.0 17.5 128.2 72.5 63.7 2.4 4.2 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 9.7 16.4 15.7 127.9 70.4 63.8 3.9 7.8 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 9.1 10.6 16.0 153.0 75.3 67.2 1.1 3.5 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 12.2 18.1 17.3 121.1 65.6 61.4 6.8 10.4 18.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.4 13.6 16.0 121.7 69.5 60.5 1.7 3.0 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 7.8 12.7 17.5 122.8 68.3 62.0 3.4 6.1 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 7.7 11.3 15.1 116.6 66.8 61.3 1.8 6.1 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 8.7 8.8 14.8 116.5 63.5 60.7 2.7 6.2 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 9.4 16.1 16.0 123.8 67.2 62.2 2.7 7.0 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 15.3 26.5 23.3 170.8 84.7 69.9 2.2 9.1 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.3 7.4 12.8 96.6 63.4 54.6 0.0 1.8 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 7.6 9.5 15.0 116.3 65.6 60.6 2.4 6.3 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 6.9 11.3 15.8 153.8 74.8 66.8 2.3 5.0 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 6.2 17.0 21.4 142.3 76.2 64.9 1.2 3.5 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 8.2 11.8 16.9 155.6 79.0 66.6 2.0 3.8 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.7 12.2 26.6 147.9 77.2 65.6 2.6 9.0 10.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 7.1 16.9 16.4 132.4 72.8 62.1 1.8 4.4 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 9.9 13.4 17.3 162.4 77.7 68.2 1.7 4.8 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 4.9 14.4 18.3 157.3 82.9 66.2 1.9 3.8 7.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 7.4 19.2 20.0 148.7 78.9 65.8 1.8 4.9 8.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 12.7 15.4 19.7 143.7 76.1 66.2 2.5 4.5 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 10.2 16.4 17.0 134.5 71.8 63.7 3.1 8.5 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 11.9 15.8 19.3 154.9 79.7 68.5 1.7 5.6 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 6.8 10.8 13.0 96.2 63.0 54.9 0.9 4.6 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 19.8 27.6 24.6 157.4 81.8 67.2 3.4 11.1 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 10.5 14.6 16.5 153.8 77.8 66.7 1.4 4.2 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------