***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2016.-20.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 12.8 13.8 11.6 2.3 80.4 78.9 8.8 10.1 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 12.2 13.3 11.3 2.0 80.2 77.2 7.7 9.9 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 13.3 14.1 11.7 2.2 79.9 78.2 8.6 10.7 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 5.7 6.9 9.8 2.6 83.2 79.5 1.2 2.5 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 13.3 14.5 10.3 2.6 84.1 79.0 8.6 10.7 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 12.5 13.5 9.0 2.9 83.9 80.7 7.9 9.4 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 12.1 13.1 11.2 2.1 80.5 78.0 7.3 9.7 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 2.1 3.5 8.7 2.2 80.9 76.6 -0.9 0.2 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 13.4 14.4 10.9 2.5 83.3 78.6 8.7 11.0 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 13.3 14.6 9.6 2.4 82.0 77.4 8.6 10.9 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 13.5 14.7 10.2 2.6 84.4 79.2 9.2 10.7 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 12.6 13.8 9.7 2.4 81.2 77.8 8.3 10.3 11.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 13.7 14.6 9.6 2.6 82.3 78.9 9.2 10.9 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 13.4 13.8 10.5 2.0 76.3 74.4 9.2 11.5 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 12.7 13.6 10.5 2.6 83.8 79.7 7.7 9.3 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 14.2 15.2 10.0 2.7 84.0 79.7 9.4 11.1 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 11.4 12.2 10.8 1.9 78.7 76.3 7.2 9.8 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 12.8 13.9 8.9 2.1 78.8 75.0 8.3 10.7 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 12.5 13.7 11.5 2.0 80.0 76.9 7.3 10.3 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 7.9 8.4 6.2 1.7 73.3 71.9 3.8 5.7 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 13.4 14.1 11.5 2.4 82.0 78.9 8.8 11.1 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 12.4 13.4 11.0 1.8 77.6 75.0 7.7 10.4 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 13.0 14.2 11.5 2.1 79.1 76.4 8.4 10.9 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 12.8 13.7 10.5 2.2 79.3 76.0 9.1 11.0 12.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 12.5 13.4 10.2 2.4 81.7 78.8 7.9 9.8 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 12.9 13.8 8.9 2.4 82.3 78.7 8.7 10.2 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 12.8 13.8 10.8 2.3 81.0 78.7 8.4 10.3 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 13.1 14.1 10.3 2.7 84.1 79.8 8.5 9.5 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 7.9 8.4 7.7 1.9 75.9 73.2 4.1 5.5 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 12.3 13.4 11.5 2.1 79.6 77.9 7.9 9.7 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------