***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.03.2016.-20.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 14.3 15.4 12.3 1.6 69.7 65.3 8.9 11.9 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 45 55 100 13.9 15.0 12.2 1.5 69.6 64.9 9.6 10.8 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 13.5 15.9 12.5 1.6 68.6 64.6 9.3 12.8 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 7.6 7.6 10.6 2.0 68.9 65.6 0.9 4.9 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 13.8 16.1 10.9 1.8 67.0 64.5 9.0 12.9 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 14.7 14.6 9.4 2.2 70.9 66.7 8.0 12.0 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 46 54 100 13.7 15.1 12.1 1.5 71.1 65.3 9.1 11.1 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 1.7 3.9 9.3 1.5 66.3 63.1 -1.0 0.9 3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 13.6 15.8 11.4 1.7 66.2 63.9 8.6 12.9 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 14.1 15.4 10.2 1.6 65.6 63.2 8.3 13.4 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 14.0 16.2 10.6 1.8 66.9 64.1 8.9 13.2 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 12.8 15.5 10.3 1.6 67.7 63.8 7.9 12.0 15.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 15.6 16.0 10.0 1.8 69.5 65.1 9.3 13.1 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 13.9 15.3 11.2 1.4 64.8 62.2 9.8 13.1 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 15.1 16.5 10.9 2.0 71.4 66.7 9.9 11.7 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 16.0 16.4 10.4 1.9 68.9 65.0 9.3 13.6 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 11.0 13.9 11.8 1.4 68.0 64.2 8.7 10.2 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.4 14.1 9.5 1.4 65.9 62.4 8.5 12.6 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 12.3 14.9 12.3 1.5 68.6 64.4 9.3 11.5 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 7.9 10.2 6.9 1.2 66.2 61.4 3.9 7.0 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 13.4 15.8 12.0 1.7 67.1 64.4 9.2 12.6 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 11.7 15.3 12.0 1.3 66.2 63.3 9.5 10.9 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 13.0 15.8 12.4 1.5 67.5 63.5 9.9 12.1 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 13.5 16.0 11.2 1.5 66.4 63.0 9.6 12.7 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 14.4 15.6 10.8 1.8 68.8 65.5 9.0 11.9 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 14.9 15.1 9.7 1.8 69.7 65.2 8.6 12.6 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 14.4 14.9 11.5 1.7 69.8 65.5 9.1 12.1 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 15.3 16.5 10.9 2.1 70.0 66.0 9.6 12.3 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 8.0 10.6 8.4 1.3 65.0 61.8 3.5 7.2 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 45 55 100 14.0 15.7 12.3 1.5 70.6 65.1 9.4 11.2 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------