***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.03.2016.-13.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 11.3 12.1 11.3 1.5 64.8 63.1 8.0 10.5 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.4 12.9 11.1 1.3 65.3 61.2 8.3 10.6 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 12.0 13.0 11.5 1.5 64.4 62.5 8.2 11.2 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 5.0 5.7 10.0 1.9 69.5 66.4 0.0 2.2 4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 12.0 13.2 10.1 1.8 66.2 64.6 8.2 11.2 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 9.8 12.0 8.8 2.1 68.1 67.0 6.5 9.2 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 12.8 12.7 10.9 1.3 65.3 60.9 8.3 10.4 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 1.3 2.4 8.4 1.4 60.5 61.9 -2.0 0.5 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.7 13.0 10.6 1.7 64.4 63.2 8.1 10.8 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.9 9.2 1.5 62.8 62.0 8.5 11.0 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 11.8 12.6 9.8 1.7 65.1 64.2 8.2 10.9 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.8 11.7 9.5 1.6 62.7 63.8 7.9 10.0 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 12.9 13.6 9.2 1.9 66.8 65.4 9.2 10.7 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.7 13.0 10.2 1.3 61.9 60.4 8.8 11.8 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 13.0 14.2 10.4 2.0 72.0 67.7 7.6 10.3 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 44 56 100 13.4 13.4 9.7 1.9 67.5 65.6 8.5 11.4 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.3 12.6 10.6 1.2 65.6 60.2 7.3 10.4 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.4 12.0 8.4 1.2 59.4 60.1 8.6 10.4 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.5 13.5 11.3 1.3 64.8 61.6 7.8 10.6 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.9 5.7 0.8 57.7 57.8 3.7 6.0 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.8 13.1 11.1 1.7 64.8 63.5 8.6 11.0 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 12.1 13.3 10.9 1.2 64.0 60.3 8.1 11.3 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 12.4 14.0 11.4 1.4 63.8 61.7 8.7 11.6 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.5 10.2 1.4 61.4 61.1 8.6 11.3 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 11.1 13.9 10.0 1.6 65.5 64.3 7.3 10.3 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 12.9 13.0 8.9 1.8 67.3 66.1 8.7 10.9 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 11.3 12.7 10.5 1.5 64.8 63.0 8.3 10.5 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 13.4 13.7 10.4 2.0 71.1 67.3 7.6 10.8 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 6.5 6.6 7.3 1.0 57.3 58.9 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.3 12.7 11.2 1.3 65.3 61.6 7.7 10.5 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------