***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.02.2016.-06.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 13.1 13.6 11.4 2.1 70.2 69.9 6.8 11.3 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 9.5 13.1 11.0 1.8 69.8 67.4 7.3 8.9 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 12.9 14.1 11.4 2.1 70.2 68.7 8.1 10.6 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 6.7 7.6 9.7 2.4 73.6 70.8 0.1 3.3 5.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 13.7 14.9 10.1 2.4 73.2 70.7 8.7 11.0 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 13.1 14.3 8.8 2.7 75.4 71.7 7.4 9.6 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 9.0 12.7 11.0 1.9 69.5 68.3 7.4 8.4 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 2.5 3.3 8.4 2.0 72.0 68.7 -1.0 0.8 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 13.7 14.8 10.6 2.3 70.7 69.6 8.8 11.4 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 13.6 14.4 9.4 2.2 70.6 69.1 8.6 11.3 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 14.1 15.0 9.9 2.4 74.0 71.0 8.6 11.4 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 12.7 13.5 9.4 2.3 74.4 70.3 8.4 10.1 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 13.5 14.7 9.2 2.5 75.6 71.2 8.8 10.5 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 12.3 13.9 10.1 1.8 68.4 64.8 8.9 11.8 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 13.3 14.3 9.9 2.3 71.8 70.7 6.3 8.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 14.0 15.1 9.7 2.5 75.2 71.6 9.0 11.1 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 8.8 12.2 10.6 1.7 67.9 66.0 6.7 8.3 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 45 55 100 12.5 13.5 8.6 2.0 69.3 67.2 8.7 10.5 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 9.8 13.1 11.2 1.8 69.9 66.7 7.3 9.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 6.3 8.3 5.8 1.4 69.4 64.4 4.6 5.7 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 13.7 14.2 11.1 2.3 70.9 69.9 8.5 11.2 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 10.2 12.9 10.7 1.6 66.7 64.2 7.0 9.6 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 47 53 100 12.6 13.9 11.2 1.9 69.1 66.1 8.5 10.5 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 13.5 14.4 10.2 2.0 69.4 67.2 8.9 11.6 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 12.8 13.4 9.9 2.2 72.7 70.4 7.6 9.9 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 13.3 14.1 8.7 2.3 72.0 71.1 8.4 10.4 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 12.7 13.8 10.6 2.1 71.4 70.0 7.9 10.4 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 14.6 15.9 10.0 2.4 72.9 70.9 7.1 9.5 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 6.7 9.5 7.5 1.7 68.5 65.8 4.6 6.1 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 47 53 100 11.4 13.1 11.2 1.9 70.2 68.3 7.4 9.0 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------