***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2016.-28.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 13.0 13.9 11.2 3.9 79.8 80.1 5.4 7.7 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 9 91 100 11.3 11.7 10.9 3.5 77.3 78.3 4.6 6.1 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 13.2 14.5 11.4 3.8 80.0 79.1 5.3 6.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 6.5 7.5 8.9 4.2 80.9 80.0 -0.8 0.1 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 9 91 100 13.5 14.4 10.1 4.2 79.6 80.1 5.5 7.2 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 11.4 13.2 9.0 4.5 83.7 81.9 4.8 6.9 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 10.7 11.0 10.7 3.6 77.6 78.8 4.6 5.6 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 1.4 2.3 8.7 3.9 79.0 78.6 -2.6 -1.1 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 13.3 14.3 11.1 4.2 79.8 80.5 6.1 7.4 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 12.5 13.7 9.8 4.2 79.5 79.4 5.5 7.7 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 13.0 13.9 10.3 4.4 79.7 80.2 5.7 8.0 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 11.4 12.3 9.4 4.0 77.9 79.1 5.2 7.5 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 12.8 13.9 9.9 4.1 78.7 79.9 6.0 7.8 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 12.6 16.0 10.5 3.5 78.9 74.7 5.7 7.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 12.0 13.9 10.8 4.3 81.6 80.7 4.5 6.6 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 13.5 14.5 10.0 4.3 79.2 80.7 6.5 8.5 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 10.2 10.6 10.3 3.3 75.9 77.3 4.8 5.8 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 11.4 12.8 8.9 3.7 77.4 77.2 5.5 7.4 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 11.7 12.6 11.0 3.5 77.9 78.0 4.8 5.8 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 6.0 8.0 6.4 3.2 76.9 74.9 1.6 2.9 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 13.4 14.9 11.5 4.1 80.4 80.3 5.7 7.4 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 11.1 11.6 10.4 3.1 75.4 76.4 4.9 5.8 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 11.8 13.5 11.0 3.5 79.3 77.4 5.6 6.2 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 12.5 13.9 10.6 3.7 77.6 77.3 5.8 7.8 11.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 11.8 12.8 10.1 4.0 79.8 80.1 5.2 6.3 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 10.5 11.7 8.5 3.7 78.6 78.7 6.4 7.6 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 12.5 13.2 10.6 3.9 80.0 79.9 5.4 7.0 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 13.1 14.9 10.0 4.3 81.6 80.3 5.2 6.4 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 7.2 8.6 7.8 3.4 76.9 75.5 2.0 4.5 7.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 10 90 100 11.2 12.0 11.0 3.6 79.5 78.8 4.6 5.6 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------