***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.03.2016.-20.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 3.2 4.4 3.9 1.9 75.7 69.7 0.2 1.0 2.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 2.5 3.1 3.6 1.7 72.1 68.3 0.1 0.9 2.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 4.9 5.6 3.6 1.8 75.0 69.5 1.8 3.7 5.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 -0.3 0.7 1.3 2.1 78.0 71.0 -4.8 -2.4 0.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 1.6 2.0 1.3 2.1 74.5 69.7 -0.9 0.1 1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 0.7 0.7 -0.6 2.6 72.3 72.2 -0.9 -0.4 0.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 2.9 3.2 3.7 1.8 72.2 69.1 0.3 1.4 2.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 -3.4 -3.3 -0.5 2.1 67.3 68.6 -7.7 -5.6 -3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 3.1 2.9 1.9 2.0 72.7 68.7 0.6 1.5 2.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 2.4 2.4 0.3 2.0 69.3 68.2 0.2 1.2 2.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 2.2 2.2 0.9 2.1 70.3 69.7 -0.3 0.7 2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 1.2 1.3 0.6 2.2 70.5 69.8 -1.0 -0.5 0.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 1.9 1.9 0.3 2.4 73.8 71.1 0.2 1.0 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 3.1 2.9 1.7 1.8 69.2 67.2 1.1 1.8 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 3.2 3.6 2.0 2.1 76.9 71.9 0.8 1.8 2.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 2.9 3.2 0.6 2.3 72.3 71.1 0.7 1.5 2.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 3.0 3.3 3.4 1.6 71.3 67.4 0.8 1.5 2.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 0.6 0.3 -0.5 1.9 66.7 66.5 -1.1 -0.6 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 2.9 3.4 3.5 1.7 72.6 68.3 0.1 1.1 2.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 -1.9 -2.2 -2.6 1.8 62.8 65.7 -4.0 -3.3 -1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 2.4 2.9 3.0 1.9 74.2 69.4 0.5 1.1 2.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 2.4 3.1 3.4 1.6 71.4 67.5 0.1 0.8 2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 2.2 2.8 3.1 1.6 72.6 68.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 2.2 2.1 1.5 1.8 70.1 67.4 0.4 1.2 1.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 2.2 2.6 2.2 2.0 77.5 70.6 0.0 1.0 1.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 1.8 2.1 0.3 2.2 71.6 68.9 0.2 0.8 1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 3.1 4.0 3.2 2.0 76.3 70.1 -0.4 1.4 2.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 1.3 2.0 1.5 2.2 76.0 71.1 -0.8 -0.4 1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 0.5 -0.1 -1.3 1.9 64.4 65.8 -3.3 -1.3 0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 3.2 3.6 3.7 1.8 73.4 69.1 0.5 1.7 2.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------