***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.03.2016.-13.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 2.0 2.6 3.3 2.0 76.5 70.3 -0.2 0.8 1.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 1.8 2.1 2.9 1.8 73.8 70.2 -0.6 0.4 1.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 4.3 4.9 2.9 1.9 74.4 70.3 1.1 2.3 3.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 -2.2 -1.3 0.7 2.1 75.3 72.2 -5.4 -3.8 -2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 0.9 1.3 0.7 2.1 73.4 69.8 -1.5 -0.6 0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 0.0 -0.1 -1.4 2.3 72.6 70.8 -2.6 -1.0 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 1.7 2.2 3.0 1.9 75.1 71.0 -0.6 0.4 1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 -4.6 -4.3 -1.6 1.8 66.5 65.8 -8.6 -7.0 -4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 2.1 2.1 1.2 2.0 73.4 68.8 -0.4 0.7 1.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 2.2 2.1 -0.6 1.9 68.8 66.8 -0.4 1.1 1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 1.9 2.1 0.2 2.0 73.3 68.9 -1.1 0.7 1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 0.7 1.0 -0.2 2.0 73.0 68.5 -2.0 -0.7 -0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 1.3 1.7 -0.5 2.2 76.4 70.4 -0.9 0.3 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 2.4 2.7 0.7 1.6 68.7 65.6 -0.3 1.3 2.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 2.1 2.5 1.3 2.0 77.5 73.6 -0.4 1.4 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 2.2 2.8 0.0 2.2 77.2 70.9 -0.1 1.0 1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 2.3 2.4 2.8 1.8 74.5 69.6 -0.4 0.8 1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 0.2 0.0 -1.5 1.7 66.8 64.6 -2.2 -0.7 0.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 1.7 1.9 2.8 1.8 74.1 69.8 -0.4 0.3 1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 -3.5 -2.4 -3.9 1.5 62.8 61.8 -5.4 -4.1 -2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 1.6 1.8 2.4 2.0 74.7 70.0 -0.6 0.2 1.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 1.7 2.3 2.7 1.8 75.6 69.4 -0.7 0.1 1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 1.4 1.9 2.3 1.7 72.9 68.7 -0.6 0.1 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 1.8 1.7 0.6 1.7 69.4 66.6 -0.6 0.1 1.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 1.5 2.1 1.6 2.1 75.6 71.4 -0.8 0.2 1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 1.5 2.1 -0.3 2.0 74.2 69.9 -1.1 0.0 1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.1 77.0 70.9 -0.7 0.3 1.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 0.5 1.0 0.9 2.1 76.6 72.5 -1.9 -0.6 0.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 -2.0 -1.0 -2.5 1.6 64.3 62.9 -4.0 -2.8 -0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 2.0 2.0 3.0 1.9 73.8 70.6 -0.2 0.4 1.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------