***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2016.-28.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 2.6 4.6 3.8 4.7 98.2 92.2 -2.1 0.3 1.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 1.3 4.6 3.3 4.4 98.0 91.3 -3.0 -1.3 0.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 4.3 7.0 3.4 4.3 97.8 91.0 -0.8 0.7 1.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 -0.6 2.0 0.9 4.6 93.2 88.5 -7.0 -5.9 -3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 9 91 100 0.3 2.9 1.5 4.5 96.5 89.2 -2.8 -1.1 0.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 -0.2 2.0 -0.6 4.6 93.4 87.5 -3.5 -1.6 -0.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 1 99 100 1.5 4.6 3.4 4.7 98.6 92.3 -2.9 -0.9 0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 -4.4 -1.9 -0.3 4.7 95.1 87.4 -10.3 -7.9 -4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 1.5 4.2 1.8 4.3 97.4 90.2 -2.7 -0.2 1.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 0.9 4.1 0.4 4.7 95.5 87.9 -1.9 -0.7 0.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 0.9 3.0 0.8 4.2 94.0 87.7 -2.0 -0.4 0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 11 89 100 -0.1 2.2 0.5 4.4 94.7 88.3 -3.3 -1.5 -0.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 0.4 2.8 0.1 4.1 91.6 84.7 -1.9 -0.4 0.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 1.6 3.5 1.3 4.2 93.4 85.1 -1.7 -1.2 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 1.3 3.2 2.1 4.2 96.1 91.9 -1.8 -0.6 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 1.6 3.7 0.4 4.0 93.4 86.7 -1.5 0.3 1.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 2.2 3.9 3.2 4.5 97.2 91.0 -2.5 -1.2 0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 -1.4 0.1 -0.3 4.6 91.8 85.4 -4.3 -3.0 -1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 1.4 4.3 3.1 4.2 97.5 90.3 -2.9 -1.3 0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 -2.8 -1.9 -1.8 4.5 88.0 83.7 -9.0 -4.8 -2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 1.1 5.5 3.2 4.5 98.5 91.5 -2.4 -0.1 0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 1.4 3.3 3.1 4.3 97.3 90.3 -2.4 -1.5 0.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 0.3 2.8 2.6 3.9 96.3 88.3 -3.0 -1.6 0.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 0.7 2.1 1.4 4.3 93.5 86.4 -2.7 -1.5 0.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 1.1 4.2 2.8 4.8 98.1 90.8 -1.9 -0.5 0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 12 88 100 1.1 2.3 0.1 4.3 89.7 85.8 -2.0 -0.8 0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 1.9 5.8 3.3 4.9 98.3 91.8 -2.9 -0.4 1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 -0.3 1.6 1.3 4.2 93.6 88.4 -4.4 -1.7 -1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 -1.5 1.1 -1.3 4.3 85.7 81.5 -6.1 -4.6 -1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 2.1 4.7 3.5 4.5 97.8 91.5 -2.7 -0.8 0.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------