***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2017.-19.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 34.8 49.6 73.6 150.5 85.5 66.8 17.9 21.9 35.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 40.7 56.7 67.0 154.8 89.5 66.9 14.4 27.9 40.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 47.4 65.7 73.0 149.3 84.2 66.9 26.6 31.7 44.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 52.0 60.4 73.7 134.9 76.7 63.2 22.8 35.4 55.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 50.1 59.6 76.9 140.6 79.8 66.0 26.0 33.4 48.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 43.1 49.5 71.4 129.2 75.5 64.7 21.8 32.7 45.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 35.1 54.1 67.3 157.6 89.7 66.1 14.6 29.0 33.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 72.6 78.7 79.2 132.9 77.9 65.8 52.7 60.6 72.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 44.0 53.7 78.3 140.7 80.5 66.0 22.8 31.5 39.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 49.9 59.3 82.8 137.3 80.6 66.5 29.3 37.8 41.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 38.9 42.6 73.6 136.2 78.7 66.1 23.2 32.4 39.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 44.5 49.6 69.8 130.6 75.5 65.2 26.7 34.2 41.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 47.9 53.9 77.2 133.9 77.7 66.4 27.5 36.0 48.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 69.3 84.3 93.1 147.7 85.6 67.1 34.5 45.1 65.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 55.4 65.1 64.1 131.7 74.0 61.9 16.2 27.7 45.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 43.3 48.4 73.5 135.6 77.1 65.8 25.8 32.3 42.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 39.7 51.3 67.2 159.3 89.6 65.5 15.0 26.8 34.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 49.2 66.4 90.6 140.7 82.6 66.6 27.3 34.9 42.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 41.5 49.6 68.6 152.0 88.2 67.1 16.7 32.5 40.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 49.6 61.0 108.7 143.2 84.6 67.9 22.5 37.3 43.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 47.1 57.5 75.9 144.6 81.4 66.4 17.9 35.4 47.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 39.4 51.7 67.8 150.7 85.8 65.1 16.2 29.6 36.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 40.5 51.6 74.2 150.7 86.6 67.1 19.1 26.0 35.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 58.2 83.7 85.1 144.9 83.3 66.9 34.4 42.1 52.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 44.8 60.4 82.2 147.8 83.1 66.7 23.0 25.5 46.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 42.7 44.2 70.8 127.5 73.2 63.6 22.4 30.5 40.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 41.2 58.1 78.0 151.2 86.0 67.3 18.6 23.9 38.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 51.0 59.0 67.6 131.8 74.2 62.7 15.1 24.9 38.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 78.6 87.7 98.3 143.8 84.4 67.4 43.2 59.8 72.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 42.5 51.9 68.1 152.6 87.8 67.0 16.0 34.8 40.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------