***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.03.2017.-19.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 3.0 3.8 16.4 120.7 64.5 54.5 0.9 2.4 4.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 1.1 3.9 15.6 131.8 69.1 56.3 0.7 2.3 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 6.1 6.3 15.9 118.0 64.5 54.1 2.8 4.3 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.6 10.2 15.2 102.2 61.6 51.2 3.9 8.3 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.2 8.3 14.8 99.2 57.4 50.7 3.6 6.5 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.1 14.9 90.8 53.6 48.6 1.8 4.5 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 0.9 7.3 15.7 136.6 72.2 56.6 0.7 2.0 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 10.7 15.4 14.4 88.7 51.8 46.8 9.3 15.3 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.2 7.3 15.3 97.8 56.1 50.5 3.9 6.3 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.3 8.0 15.5 91.7 52.5 48.1 4.7 7.6 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.7 9.3 13.2 90.8 54.5 47.8 2.8 7.2 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.0 7.3 13.1 90.5 54.6 47.2 3.7 6.3 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.1 4.4 15.2 94.1 55.4 49.0 3.5 4.3 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 8.0 11.8 20.5 118.0 65.0 54.3 4.0 5.1 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 0.8 4.6 14.1 101.7 64.1 50.5 0.1 1.9 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.4 6.7 14.0 92.5 56.3 48.6 3.5 5.0 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.1 6.2 15.9 143.5 74.4 58.1 0.4 2.4 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.3 7.8 17.4 95.6 53.7 49.2 3.6 7.3 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 1.0 6.2 15.8 128.1 68.0 56.1 1.1 2.0 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.1 7.4 19.0 90.2 49.4 46.9 3.7 7.9 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.2 7.3 15.5 106.9 60.5 52.1 3.0 6.4 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 0.8 6.1 16.3 136.9 71.6 58.2 0.3 1.8 4.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 4.6 7.4 16.7 124.4 66.1 55.7 0.7 2.3 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 9.9 11.0 17.8 109.1 60.6 52.0 4.1 7.7 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 5.4 7.1 17.5 115.1 64.1 54.0 1.9 4.0 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 1.9 3.9 13.8 88.6 50.3 47.1 1.4 3.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.8 17.3 121.2 64.9 54.6 1.5 3.3 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 1.7 4.2 14.1 97.4 60.2 50.2 1.0 3.8 5.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.0 12.8 18.4 96.4 53.9 48.9 8.1 12.2 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 4.2 5.9 15.8 127.9 68.5 55.5 0.7 2.5 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------