***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.03.2017.-12.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 6.6 31.4 33.2 247.5 94.7 68.3 1.0 4.8 6.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 5.5 24.9 29.9 252.1 95.0 67.4 0.7 1.9 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 7.2 41.8 33.1 248.3 93.8 68.8 0.9 5.4 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 12.2 30.3 34.6 247.6 94.2 70.8 2.7 6.1 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 10.1 38.1 35.0 239.0 94.0 70.4 0.7 3.7 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 10.9 23.5 33.9 234.5 93.4 72.3 0.9 3.6 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 6.5 20.3 30.0 256.9 95.0 67.3 0.3 1.6 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 17.5 37.4 35.8 223.5 91.2 69.9 5.8 11.4 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 8.3 21.0 35.6 230.5 93.2 70.0 0.0 1.2 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 11.6 39.6 37.5 228.0 92.5 70.3 0.4 2.7 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 9.5 44.6 33.3 235.3 93.7 70.2 0.8 3.0 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 8.2 14.1 31.6 224.6 91.6 70.1 0.5 2.8 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 12.3 35.1 35.4 233.4 93.8 70.9 2.6 6.3 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 18.7 49.4 42.7 251.1 93.6 69.7 0.9 3.4 9.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 9.7 28.3 30.7 243.5 91.0 70.0 1.5 3.5 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 11.0 24.3 33.9 239.7 93.6 70.8 2.1 4.8 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 5.2 18.0 29.9 259.7 93.8 67.7 0.4 1.2 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 11.7 25.8 41.0 235.2 92.7 69.6 0.8 2.7 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 10.6 20.3 30.6 248.8 94.4 67.2 0.8 3.0 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 6.0 16.3 48.9 236.2 93.8 69.9 1.1 3.0 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 8.8 32.4 34.3 240.6 93.5 69.6 0.2 2.0 4.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 6.0 15.5 29.9 246.5 92.8 66.4 0.4 1.2 2.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 11.2 21.9 33.5 250.8 93.0 67.4 0.3 2.2 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 16.0 36.4 38.4 241.0 92.8 69.2 0.9 2.3 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 7.9 33.6 37.0 246.4 94.6 68.9 0.5 4.2 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 8.2 26.0 33.5 230.3 93.0 69.7 0.6 1.9 4.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 6.5 34.7 35.0 246.6 95.3 68.4 0.5 4.2 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 8.8 31.5 32.2 244.4 92.0 70.9 1.6 3.5 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 12.4 42.2 44.6 241.4 93.5 69.7 2.5 5.6 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 9.9 23.2 30.8 251.5 95.2 67.8 0.5 2.5 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------