***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2017.-05.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.9 7.3 10.4 89.8 57.5 49.5 2.1 6.1 8.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.6 9.8 95.4 57.4 48.3 5.5 8.3 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.4 10.8 10.5 90.1 57.1 47.7 4.3 7.7 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 6.7 13.9 11.6 90.7 56.8 47.2 3.4 13.3 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.9 9.3 12.1 93.2 58.0 47.3 5.2 7.7 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.0 6.9 12.1 101.7 58.1 51.7 4.4 5.6 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 10.4 11.1 9.5 93.2 56.3 49.0 3.3 8.8 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 9.4 17.2 11.7 89.3 54.8 47.5 12.9 16.5 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 9.1 12.3 12.2 93.8 58.6 48.0 2.9 6.3 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.8 12.4 93.4 57.3 48.4 7.1 9.6 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.0 6.2 12.1 94.3 57.0 48.0 2.3 5.3 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.4 7.3 11.0 89.5 52.4 47.3 4.6 6.3 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.3 8.7 13.0 101.4 56.2 51.6 3.9 7.1 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 6.7 16.4 12.4 83.7 52.6 43.7 7.7 15.5 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.2 15.1 10.3 91.8 60.5 49.3 0.7 7.1 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.1 10.1 12.1 97.4 57.3 49.3 2.1 8.4 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.7 9.7 94.1 57.4 47.6 5.5 7.8 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.5 10.5 13.0 90.9 56.5 47.1 6.6 9.8 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.2 8.6 10.1 94.6 56.5 47.9 4.4 7.1 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.3 10.0 15.9 91.9 58.4 48.6 5.1 8.8 11.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.8 10.0 11.8 93.6 59.6 47.9 2.5 5.1 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.4 10.1 91.7 55.5 46.7 5.4 10.1 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.9 7.4 10.4 88.9 55.1 45.8 5.1 7.1 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 4.9 11.6 12.0 87.0 55.1 45.1 8.7 10.8 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.4 10.7 12.5 92.5 57.6 49.2 1.8 7.1 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.0 9.1 11.8 94.3 54.2 50.3 2.6 8.3 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.4 11.0 89.6 56.7 49.5 1.8 7.0 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.7 8.5 10.6 91.8 58.8 47.9 1.9 7.7 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.7 16.3 14.1 90.5 56.6 47.2 9.7 13.8 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.1 9.7 9.7 93.2 56.9 48.8 4.3 7.9 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------