***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2017.-26.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 9.0 10.7 13.6 131.8 71.7 62.7 3.8 7.8 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 5.9 7.1 11.7 125.4 68.8 60.3 2.3 4.4 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 9.6 12.6 13.5 129.3 70.4 61.5 2.8 8.1 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 8.0 6.7 12.3 94.9 57.3 51.8 2.4 5.3 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 6.9 12.4 15.0 123.5 69.2 58.8 2.5 4.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.1 8.2 10.5 84.0 53.4 47.7 2.1 5.6 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 5.5 8.9 12.0 129.2 69.1 61.3 2.1 4.3 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 14.5 22.0 17.3 122.1 67.2 59.9 7.8 12.1 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 6.6 11.6 15.2 131.9 71.7 61.4 2.1 4.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 8.5 11.9 17.4 128.0 69.3 60.5 3.7 6.6 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 9.8 12.4 14.9 119.6 68.0 58.4 2.6 7.5 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 10.5 12.5 14.1 112.1 64.6 57.8 4.3 7.2 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 8.3 12.7 13.6 100.6 58.4 53.9 2.8 5.4 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 10.7 14.3 17.5 126.7 69.4 59.4 2.2 8.9 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 7.2 4.3 9.0 82.0 58.0 50.4 0.4 3.3 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 7.8 8.3 13.6 108.4 61.8 55.6 3.4 6.4 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 6.3 7.9 11.8 126.3 68.2 61.0 3.0 4.5 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 7.4 16.9 19.2 133.4 70.6 61.1 1.6 5.1 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 6.3 10.5 12.1 123.1 68.9 59.4 2.1 5.1 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 12.2 25.6 25.0 150.4 76.2 65.1 4.8 9.1 14.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 6.5 13.3 14.3 128.7 69.9 61.3 1.9 4.2 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 6.8 10.0 11.7 115.8 65.2 59.1 1.9 5.4 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 4.9 9.2 13.5 126.4 69.3 59.2 2.3 3.6 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 8.6 14.6 16.9 133.3 70.3 61.3 3.4 6.0 13.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 7.2 13.5 15.2 128.0 71.0 61.7 1.6 5.3 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 11.0 10.8 11.7 90.7 57.3 50.8 3.2 9.5 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 6.6 12.5 14.7 135.9 73.2 64.1 1.3 5.2 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 6.4 6.0 10.7 88.4 56.7 50.7 1.8 4.0 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 17.1 32.9 21.2 140.5 72.6 62.3 6.2 12.9 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 7.0 8.5 11.8 123.0 67.9 60.2 1.9 5.3 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------