***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2017.-19.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 12.5 13.3 11.5 2.2 77.7 75.5 8.0 10.2 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 12.0 12.8 11.3 2.0 77.3 74.0 7.2 9.7 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 12.9 13.8 11.9 2.2 77.7 75.0 8.0 10.4 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 5.6 6.8 9.2 2.6 81.8 78.4 0.8 1.5 5.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 13.3 14.2 10.3 2.3 80.1 76.0 8.2 10.1 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 11.9 13.1 8.5 2.2 80.8 75.5 7.5 8.6 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 11.7 12.5 11.2 2.0 76.7 73.8 6.9 9.3 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 1.9 2.6 8.8 2.2 78.7 75.2 -1.1 -0.2 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 13.2 14.0 11.0 2.3 79.6 76.4 8.4 10.6 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 13.1 13.9 9.8 2.3 78.6 75.1 8.4 10.7 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 13.3 14.1 10.5 2.4 80.0 76.6 8.8 10.1 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 12.2 13.0 9.6 2.3 80.6 76.1 8.0 9.3 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 13.0 13.8 9.5 2.2 79.1 75.4 8.7 10.1 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 13.2 14.2 11.1 2.2 77.9 74.6 8.6 10.9 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 12.6 13.8 10.7 2.8 85.1 81.2 7.0 8.7 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 13.4 14.4 9.8 2.3 80.5 76.3 9.0 10.4 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 11.2 11.9 11.0 1.9 76.0 74.0 6.7 9.1 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 12.8 13.6 9.3 2.2 78.2 74.2 7.9 10.3 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 12.0 12.8 11.6 2.1 77.0 74.3 6.9 9.7 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 7.6 8.5 6.8 1.9 77.3 72.6 3.7 4.9 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 13.1 14.0 11.6 2.3 78.6 76.1 8.5 10.5 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 12.2 13.1 11.3 2.0 75.6 74.4 7.1 9.7 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 12.5 13.3 11.8 2.2 76.5 74.8 7.9 10.6 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 13.1 13.9 11.0 2.2 78.7 74.8 8.6 11.0 12.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 12.3 13.2 10.2 2.3 79.4 76.2 7.5 9.1 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 12.6 13.3 8.7 2.2 81.9 77.0 8.3 9.3 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 12.6 13.5 10.8 2.1 77.2 74.8 7.8 9.9 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 13.2 14.5 9.9 2.7 83.4 79.4 7.8 8.9 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 8.0 9.0 8.5 2.0 77.8 73.2 3.6 5.0 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 11.7 12.6 11.4 2.1 77.2 74.2 7.2 9.5 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------