***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.03.2017.-19.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 12.0 12.8 12.1 0.9 56.9 56.5 9.8 11.5 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 12.1 12.0 11.8 0.7 55.0 55.2 9.9 11.6 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 12.9 13.1 12.5 0.9 57.2 56.3 10.3 12.5 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 5.0 4.9 10.1 1.3 60.9 59.9 1.3 4.3 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 13.0 13.6 10.9 1.3 59.4 59.2 9.8 12.5 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 11.6 12.4 9.0 1.3 60.3 58.9 8.8 10.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 11.7 11.6 11.8 0.7 55.3 55.3 9.6 11.2 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 0.9 2.7 9.7 1.5 61.1 60.9 -0.8 0.1 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 13.0 12.9 11.3 1.2 59.1 58.3 9.9 12.6 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 13.2 13.5 10.3 1.4 59.6 59.4 9.8 12.8 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 12.9 13.5 10.9 1.4 59.8 60.3 10.0 12.4 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 12.4 13.0 10.5 1.5 60.6 60.8 9.4 11.6 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 13.1 13.2 9.6 1.3 59.3 59.4 10.5 12.5 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 13.5 13.4 11.2 1.0 56.7 56.0 10.3 13.0 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 12.3 13.5 10.7 1.1 59.8 59.2 9.9 11.7 14.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 13.4 14.0 10.4 1.4 59.8 60.2 10.8 12.8 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 11.1 11.4 11.6 0.6 54.7 54.6 9.2 10.4 13.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 12.9 13.0 10.0 1.3 58.8 58.8 10.2 12.3 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 12.2 12.1 12.1 0.7 55.5 55.3 10.0 11.6 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 7.7 8.4 7.3 1.2 61.4 59.6 4.9 7.0 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 13.1 13.1 12.0 1.0 58.0 57.3 10.1 12.8 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 12.4 12.1 11.7 0.6 52.8 54.4 10.0 11.8 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 12.7 12.8 12.3 0.8 55.9 55.4 10.3 12.2 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 13.2 13.0 11.3 1.1 57.8 57.2 10.5 12.6 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 12.4 12.9 10.5 1.0 56.9 57.6 9.7 12.0 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 12.4 13.4 9.4 1.3 62.2 59.9 10.0 11.7 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 11.9 12.4 11.3 0.9 56.2 56.7 9.9 11.4 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 13.3 13.9 10.4 1.3 60.6 60.0 9.3 12.8 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 7.7 7.7 9.1 1.2 59.2 58.5 4.5 7.0 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 12.1 12.0 11.9 0.7 55.6 55.6 9.8 11.6 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------