***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.03.2017.-12.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 11.1 11.6 11.6 1.6 62.8 62.0 8.5 10.4 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.5 11.6 11.4 1.5 58.2 61.2 7.4 10.7 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.2 12.1 1.7 62.5 62.1 8.1 11.7 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 5.5 5.4 9.7 2.0 67.4 65.0 -0.4 3.4 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 13.8 12.8 10.6 1.9 66.3 64.0 7.7 11.3 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 12.4 10.6 8.5 1.6 61.3 61.0 7.6 10.0 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 11.5 11.3 11.3 1.4 58.4 60.8 7.6 10.8 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 2.9 2.5 9.1 1.7 64.5 62.4 -1.2 0.5 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 13.5 12.6 11.1 1.8 65.3 63.3 8.5 11.2 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 13.6 12.3 10.0 1.8 65.0 62.7 8.1 11.6 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 13.6 12.2 10.4 1.8 63.8 63.3 8.0 11.4 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 12.8 11.7 9.9 1.6 62.6 62.5 8.8 10.7 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 13.4 12.2 9.0 1.4 60.4 60.9 10.4 11.5 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.9 13.1 11.1 1.8 64.7 61.8 7.3 12.0 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 12.9 13.4 10.3 2.0 66.3 65.1 5.5 10.9 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 13.8 12.4 9.8 1.6 62.3 62.4 9.1 11.9 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.1 11.2 1.4 59.0 60.8 6.4 10.6 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 13.2 12.2 9.7 1.7 64.7 61.9 7.4 11.0 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.5 11.7 1.6 59.4 61.5 6.6 11.2 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.9 7.8 6.8 1.5 63.9 60.6 4.2 6.3 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 13.7 12.7 11.7 1.8 65.5 62.9 8.7 11.3 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 11.8 12.4 11.4 1.4 59.9 60.9 6.3 11.2 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.8 12.1 1.7 61.3 61.8 7.5 11.5 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 14.1 12.6 11.0 1.7 64.6 62.0 9.4 11.6 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 12.8 12.8 10.2 1.8 66.2 63.4 7.1 10.6 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.7 8.8 1.5 61.8 62.2 10.0 11.3 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 11.5 12.1 10.9 1.6 63.3 62.0 8.7 10.8 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 13.9 12.9 10.0 2.0 66.5 64.6 6.2 11.5 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.8 8.7 1.6 63.2 61.2 3.6 6.0 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.4 11.3 11.5 1.5 58.6 61.2 7.4 10.7 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------