***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2017.-05.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 12.0 11.8 10.3 1.6 62.2 60.4 7.4 11.4 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.8 10.7 10.3 1.5 58.5 58.5 6.1 8.8 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 11.0 12.3 10.7 1.5 59.8 58.7 7.3 10.2 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 4.4 4.1 7.7 1.8 60.4 61.8 0.2 3.7 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 11.3 11.8 8.9 1.5 59.8 59.3 8.1 10.6 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 10.5 10.9 7.2 1.4 57.7 58.3 7.4 10.0 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 9.4 10.6 10.2 1.5 59.6 58.9 6.2 8.5 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 1.2 1.7 7.4 1.3 59.6 58.0 -1.1 0.7 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 11.8 12.0 9.7 1.4 58.7 58.4 7.6 11.1 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 11.9 11.9 8.3 1.3 57.6 57.1 7.6 11.2 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 12.2 12.3 9.1 1.4 58.0 58.1 8.0 11.5 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 10.7 10.7 8.2 1.4 59.4 58.5 7.8 10.0 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 11.3 11.5 8.2 1.2 54.8 56.6 8.2 10.6 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 12.0 12.6 9.9 1.3 55.5 56.1 6.9 11.3 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 9.6 10.1 9.3 1.9 60.5 62.6 5.9 8.6 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 12.3 12.2 8.4 1.3 56.7 57.5 8.9 11.7 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 9.2 10.0 10.1 1.5 59.9 59.0 5.9 8.4 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 11.7 11.2 8.1 1.4 57.4 56.8 7.3 11.1 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 9.6 11.5 10.5 1.5 57.7 58.1 6.7 8.5 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 6.1 6.1 5.8 1.3 59.6 57.6 4.2 5.5 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 11.7 12.2 10.4 1.5 60.4 59.1 7.7 11.0 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.2 11.3 10.3 1.5 58.2 59.0 6.6 9.4 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 10.8 11.9 10.6 1.4 57.0 57.4 7.6 10.0 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 11.5 12.4 9.8 1.4 56.9 56.6 7.6 10.6 14.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 10.3 11.3 9.1 1.7 63.6 61.3 7.0 9.3 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 11.0 11.0 7.3 1.4 58.9 59.6 8.8 10.5 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 10.6 11.5 9.8 1.7 63.5 60.7 6.9 9.9 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 10.8 10.5 8.4 1.7 59.1 60.8 8.2 9.6 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 7.0 7.4 7.3 1.3 58.5 57.0 3.5 6.4 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 10.4 11.1 10.4 1.5 59.6 58.9 6.5 9.6 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------