***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2017.-26.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 11.8 16.2 11.9 4.7 89.1 86.0 4.8 7.0 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 8 92 100 10.4 13.5 11.9 4.6 86.1 85.8 4.4 5.4 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 8 92 100 12.1 16.3 12.4 4.8 88.4 86.3 5.5 6.2 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 5.6 9.0 9.7 5.4 90.2 88.7 -1.6 0.6 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 12.1 16.5 10.9 4.8 88.3 86.2 4.5 6.5 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 11.2 15.1 9.3 4.8 89.0 86.7 4.3 5.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 9.9 12.8 11.4 4.4 84.3 84.3 4.1 5.4 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 1.8 3.9 9.4 4.6 86.6 84.9 -3.0 -1.8 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 12.6 17.1 12.2 5.0 90.1 87.8 5.5 7.3 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 12.0 16.0 10.6 4.8 87.8 85.6 5.1 7.5 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 12.2 16.9 11.6 5.1 89.6 87.1 4.9 7.2 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 11.7 15.3 10.2 4.7 88.6 86.7 5.0 7.4 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 12.5 15.9 11.0 4.7 87.7 85.8 5.7 7.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 13.3 17.4 12.3 5.1 91.4 88.1 5.1 7.9 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 11.3 15.9 12.3 6.2 94.3 93.0 4.1 6.6 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 8 92 100 12.9 16.5 10.8 4.9 89.4 87.4 5.9 7.4 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 9.7 12.8 11.3 4.4 85.0 85.1 3.9 5.5 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 11.0 15.9 9.9 4.6 87.5 84.9 5.2 6.3 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 11.1 15.4 12.1 4.7 87.9 86.8 4.0 5.4 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 7.6 9.9 7.3 3.8 83.4 81.3 1.4 3.8 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 12.6 16.7 12.6 4.9 89.8 87.1 5.4 6.2 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 10.4 15.7 11.7 4.5 87.4 86.4 4.2 5.9 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 11.7 16.7 12.5 4.9 90.5 88.2 5.1 6.4 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 7 93 100 12.1 16.6 12.0 4.9 89.3 86.4 5.6 6.7 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 11.1 15.4 11.0 4.8 87.7 86.2 4.1 6.6 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 11.5 15.8 9.3 4.6 92.8 88.4 6.0 7.2 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 11.3 15.1 11.2 4.4 86.0 84.2 4.9 6.7 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 12.8 16.8 11.1 5.8 91.4 90.4 3.9 6.7 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 8.3 10.6 9.0 4.3 85.3 83.1 0.9 4.0 6.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 10.5 14.3 11.9 4.6 86.6 85.8 4.1 5.7 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------