***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2017.-19.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 1.6 2.2 2.2 2.0 78.4 73.6 -0.3 0.2 1.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 1.0 1.6 2.0 1.9 77.9 74.0 -0.7 -0.5 1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 3.4 4.1 2.2 1.8 76.3 73.4 1.1 1.8 3.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 -1.5 -0.8 0.0 2.4 81.0 79.6 -5.1 -4.7 -2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 0.6 0.9 0.2 2.0 78.5 75.8 -1.8 -0.6 0.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 -0.1 0.3 -2.1 2.2 80.3 76.9 -2.0 -1.2 -0.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 1.3 1.7 2.1 1.9 77.3 74.1 -0.6 0.1 1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 -4.5 -3.9 -2.2 1.9 77.7 74.1 -7.9 -6.7 -5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 1.8 2.2 0.2 1.9 78.1 75.0 -0.9 0.3 1.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 1.3 1.7 -1.4 1.9 77.6 73.8 -0.9 0.2 1.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 1.1 1.4 -0.6 2.0 78.1 75.0 -0.6 0.2 0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 0.0 0.3 -1.2 2.1 79.1 75.9 -2.0 -1.1 -0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 0.9 1.2 -1.3 2.0 78.3 75.1 -0.8 -0.1 0.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 1.6 2.0 0.0 1.8 75.5 73.1 -0.5 0.5 1.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 1.4 1.9 1.1 2.4 84.3 80.9 -0.8 0.4 1.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 1.9 2.4 -1.0 2.1 79.1 75.7 -0.6 0.5 1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 1.6 2.0 2.0 1.9 77.8 74.6 -0.6 0.3 1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 -0.5 -0.2 -1.9 1.9 76.6 73.9 -2.8 -1.7 -0.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.8 77.3 73.3 -0.8 -0.2 0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 -2.6 -2.3 -3.5 1.8 77.2 73.6 -5.8 -4.2 -3.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.9 78.7 74.8 -1.1 0.2 0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 0.8 1.2 1.8 1.8 76.5 72.8 -0.9 -0.1 0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.6 75.1 71.8 -1.1 -0.4 0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 1.1 1.3 -0.1 1.8 76.7 73.7 -1.1 -0.2 0.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 1.2 1.6 1.3 2.2 79.2 76.8 -1.5 0.1 0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 1.1 1.4 -1.4 2.3 80.6 78.4 -0.9 0.1 0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 1.8 2.4 1.8 2.1 78.8 74.9 -1.0 0.3 0.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 0.0 0.5 0.4 2.5 84.0 80.7 -2.2 -1.1 -0.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 -0.9 -0.3 -2.8 1.7 74.9 72.2 -4.2 -3.4 -1.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 1.4 2.0 2.1 1.8 76.9 73.2 -0.5 0.1 1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------