***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.03.2017.-19.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 1.8 2.1 2.8 0.9 59.3 58.9 -0.1 1.3 2.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 1.5 0.9 2.5 0.7 53.5 56.2 -0.3 0.8 1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 3.6 3.6 2.7 0.8 56.4 57.7 1.5 3.0 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 -2.9 -2.1 0.2 1.0 59.6 59.7 -4.6 -4.0 -0.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.9 59.6 59.6 -0.8 -0.5 0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 -0.4 -0.5 -1.8 1.0 53.1 59.8 -1.0 -0.6 0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 1.6 1.2 2.5 0.7 53.2 56.8 -0.1 0.8 2.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -4.5 -4.1 -1.7 1.1 59.2 60.7 -7.4 -5.0 -3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 1.6 1.5 0.7 0.9 59.2 59.3 -0.2 1.0 2.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 1.2 1.6 -0.9 1.0 59.3 59.8 0.1 0.7 2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 1.8 1.6 -0.4 1.0 60.0 60.4 -0.2 0.7 1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 0.6 -0.2 -0.9 1.2 60.2 61.6 -1.0 -0.6 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 1.0 0.9 -1.3 1.0 56.1 60.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 1.7 1.9 0.6 0.8 57.3 57.8 0.7 1.2 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.0 58.3 61.1 0.2 0.8 2.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 2.6 1.5 -0.8 1.0 58.1 60.0 0.6 1.0 2.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 1.6 1.2 2.4 0.6 51.9 54.7 0.2 1.0 2.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 -0.2 -0.2 -1.5 1.0 58.5 59.4 -1.6 -0.5 0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 1.7 1.3 2.4 0.6 53.4 56.0 0.0 1.2 2.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -2.8 -2.8 -3.5 0.9 53.1 57.8 -4.7 -3.3 -1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 0.9 1.5 2.0 0.9 59.0 58.8 -0.4 0.5 1.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 1.4 1.0 2.1 0.5 50.3 54.3 -0.3 1.0 1.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 1.1 0.7 2.2 0.6 53.4 55.9 -0.3 0.6 1.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.9 58.0 58.8 -0.1 0.6 1.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 1.2 1.4 1.4 0.9 59.4 59.3 -0.2 0.7 1.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 0.9 0.8 -1.4 1.2 58.5 61.7 0.3 0.6 1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 1.7 2.0 2.2 0.9 58.7 58.7 -0.3 1.1 2.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 59.1 60.3 -1.1 -0.3 0.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -1.0 -0.9 -2.1 1.0 56.5 59.1 -3.4 -1.5 0.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 1.7 1.1 2.6 0.7 53.9 57.2 -0.1 1.0 2.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------