***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2017.-26.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 1.2 2.9 2.5 4.0 87.1 83.5 -1.8 -0.8 1.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 3 97 100 0.8 2.1 2.5 4.1 88.7 86.7 -3.0 -1.6 -0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 8 92 100 3.9 4.5 2.6 3.8 86.2 84.1 -0.5 0.2 1.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 -1.9 2.0 1.3 4.9 93.2 91.4 -7.5 -5.8 -3.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 -0.4 1.1 1.2 4.0 87.7 84.8 -2.4 -1.8 -0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 0.1 0.7 -0.9 4.6 90.3 88.0 -2.5 -2.1 -1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 1.3 2.2 2.5 4.2 88.9 86.1 -2.3 -1.4 0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 -4.5 -3.0 -1.5 3.7 84.0 81.5 -9.7 -7.2 -5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 1.4 2.2 0.6 3.5 86.8 83.7 -2.0 -0.7 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 0.8 2.0 -0.8 3.6 85.2 82.3 -1.4 -0.5 -0.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 0.5 1.3 0.4 3.8 86.3 84.4 -1.8 -1.0 -0.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 -0.8 0.1 -0.1 4.1 85.9 84.2 -2.4 -1.8 -1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 0.3 2.2 0.3 4.3 89.5 86.8 -1.8 -1.0 -0.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 1.6 2.5 0.6 3.7 86.8 84.1 -2.2 -1.1 0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 0.6 2.5 2.2 4.8 92.7 91.6 -2.6 -0.9 0.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 0.7 2.4 0.4 4.2 90.0 87.1 -1.0 0.0 0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 1.1 2.7 2.6 4.4 90.6 88.4 -2.9 -1.8 0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 -1.8 -0.8 -0.9 3.8 86.4 83.6 -4.1 -3.1 -2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 5 95 100 1.2 2.2 2.3 3.9 87.2 85.5 -2.9 -1.6 0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 -3.4 -2.7 -2.0 4.1 86.0 83.3 -6.5 -5.1 -3.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 0.8 2.3 2.1 3.9 88.0 85.5 -1.8 -1.1 0.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 1.4 1.9 2.3 3.8 86.3 85.4 -3.5 -1.9 -0.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 -0.2 0.7 1.5 3.4 84.5 82.1 -2.8 -1.8 -0.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 0.6 1.3 0.7 3.7 86.4 84.0 -2.5 -1.4 -0.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 0.5 1.5 2.4 4.5 89.5 87.4 -2.1 -0.7 0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 0.9 1.6 0.3 4.7 90.7 88.9 -1.7 -0.7 0.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 1.2 3.5 2.5 4.3 87.9 85.4 -1.8 -1.0 0.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 -0.6 0.5 2.0 5.2 93.9 92.4 -3.1 -2.1 -1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 -0.9 0.5 -2.2 3.6 82.3 79.9 -6.5 -3.9 -2.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 1.4 2.3 2.4 3.9 86.5 84.3 -2.6 -1.3 0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------