***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2012.-18.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 0.0 38.2 85.6 40.8 41.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 15.4 25.9 37.2 85.2 44.7 41.5 14.4 27.9 40.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 21.3 29.6 39.9 88.4 42.3 42.2 26.6 31.7 44.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 26.2 29.6 43.5 86.5 43.3 40.9 22.8 35.4 55.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 26.1 32.7 46.0 90.8 46.5 42.7 26.0 33.4 48.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 20.6 24.0 47.5 86.9 39.2 40.8 21.8 32.7 45.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 16.7 23.6 36.7 85.1 44.1 41.3 14.6 29.0 33.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 47.2 60.7 54.6 96.6 50.1 46.8 52.7 60.6 72.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 36.1 31.1 49.4 98.4 49.6 46.6 22.8 31.5 39.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 29.8 37.7 54.8 99.3 49.8 47.6 29.3 37.8 41.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 25.1 32.5 46.5 94.7 50.0 45.6 23.2 32.4 39.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 24.2 34.4 47.3 95.4 51.5 47.0 26.7 34.2 41.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 26.5 34.1 47.9 89.4 45.0 42.8 27.5 36.0 48.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 32.6 43.5 52.0 92.3 43.5 43.6 34.5 45.1 65.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 14.2 26.6 37.6 83.1 42.5 41.0 16.2 27.7 45.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 25.0 30.9 45.4 89.9 45.0 43.1 25.8 32.3 42.5 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 15.3 22.5 35.9 84.9 42.6 41.4 15.0 26.8 34.7 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 26.2 34.9 61.0 98.2 48.4 46.8 27.3 34.9 42.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 19.6 25.2 38.4 86.4 44.3 42.1 16.7 32.5 40.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 41.5 29.0 71.4 93.3 44.2 44.9 22.5 37.3 43.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 22.1 34.4 44.2 93.9 47.9 44.2 17.9 35.4 47.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 18.5 23.5 37.6 84.9 40.2 41.6 16.2 29.6 36.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 16.4 24.6 41.6 89.2 45.6 43.2 19.1 26.0 35.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 28.6 41.3 51.1 94.0 46.4 44.1 34.4 42.1 52.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 16.5 23.0 44.8 85.6 39.3 40.8 23.0 25.5 46.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 22.0 30.1 48.7 89.6 45.5 44.2 22.4 30.5 40.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 15.8 20.7 42.2 85.3 40.5 41.1 18.6 23.9 38.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 16.5 22.0 40.9 86.6 44.6 41.6 15.1 24.9 38.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 45.2 54.7 65.7 96.1 48.1 45.9 43.2 59.8 72.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 19.6 32.8 37.3 84.9 43.4 41.2 16.0 34.8 40.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------