***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2012.-18.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 10.6 115.8 65.7 50.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 4.0 3.7 10.5 115.0 65.9 51.8 0.7 2.3 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 6.1 6.2 10.6 112.3 63.8 49.7 2.8 4.3 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.6 9.4 10.8 100.4 56.4 48.6 3.9 8.3 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.5 8.3 11.4 102.9 58.3 47.6 3.6 6.5 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.2 4.0 11.3 89.2 47.9 46.2 1.8 4.5 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 3.4 6.9 10.7 119.0 68.9 51.7 0.7 2.0 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.0 13.0 105.5 55.6 48.4 9.3 15.3 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.6 8.6 11.9 107.0 60.0 47.1 3.9 6.3 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.2 13.0 106.1 56.2 47.5 4.7 7.6 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.6 11.5 106.9 56.4 49.2 2.8 7.2 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.4 7.9 11.3 105.8 57.0 49.1 3.7 6.3 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 6.7 4.4 11.8 98.8 53.4 47.9 3.5 4.3 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 2.3 11.8 12.6 103.9 63.1 48.5 4.0 5.1 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 0.9 2.9 9.5 100.8 57.3 49.5 0.1 1.9 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.7 6.3 11.3 102.0 55.4 49.2 3.5 5.0 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 1.2 4.3 10.3 117.1 67.1 51.8 0.4 2.4 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.1 7.7 14.3 103.3 53.0 46.7 3.6 7.3 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 3.9 5.4 10.4 112.5 64.4 51.5 1.1 2.0 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.8 8.0 17.0 102.4 53.7 48.2 3.7 7.9 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.2 7.4 11.3 114.1 61.5 48.7 3.0 6.4 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 3.7 4.2 10.4 114.9 64.8 52.0 0.3 1.8 4.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 4.6 6.1 10.7 108.7 63.4 50.5 0.7 2.3 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.0 11.0 12.4 105.3 60.4 47.3 4.1 7.7 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 1.9 6.9 12.1 110.8 62.0 50.8 1.9 4.0 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.5 11.9 103.1 56.0 49.0 1.4 3.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 1.6 4.6 11.6 113.1 63.7 51.0 1.5 3.3 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 1.7 3.9 10.1 99.2 55.1 49.0 1.0 3.8 5.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.1 12.7 15.2 102.1 53.2 47.1 8.1 12.2 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 4.1 4.1 10.4 114.3 65.5 51.5 0.7 2.5 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------