***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2012.-11.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.5 76.7 49.0 44.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 0.8 1.9 9.4 83.1 50.5 44.9 0.7 1.9 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.2 5.6 10.1 83.6 51.3 45.7 0.9 5.4 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 3.2 6.6 12.0 89.2 56.7 47.0 2.7 6.1 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 1.4 5.7 12.5 95.1 58.7 49.0 0.7 3.7 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 1.3 3.3 12.7 87.0 48.9 44.3 0.9 3.6 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 0.7 1.0 9.0 79.4 46.7 43.4 0.3 1.6 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 5.2 15.5 13.5 95.0 57.9 48.8 5.8 11.4 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 0.4 4.1 12.7 99.6 60.7 50.9 0.0 1.2 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 1.1 3.8 13.8 98.2 59.5 50.2 0.4 2.7 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 1.1 4.4 12.1 95.8 61.9 48.7 0.8 3.0 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 1.0 5.5 11.6 93.3 59.0 47.8 0.5 2.8 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 2.2 6.4 12.1 87.5 50.0 45.6 2.6 6.3 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 1.4 4.0 12.8 87.6 54.2 45.2 0.9 3.4 9.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 1.4 4.5 10.6 89.1 63.9 46.4 1.5 3.5 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 1.8 8.4 11.9 90.9 56.0 46.3 2.1 4.8 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 0.5 1.2 9.1 85.0 49.1 45.3 0.4 1.2 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 1.2 3.2 15.3 95.5 55.7 49.4 0.8 2.7 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 1.3 3.3 9.7 84.7 51.5 45.3 0.8 3.0 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 1.3 3.4 18.0 92.8 51.7 47.9 1.1 3.0 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 0.8 2.5 11.3 91.3 55.0 48.2 0.2 2.0 4.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 0.5 1.5 9.6 86.8 53.0 45.8 0.4 1.2 2.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 0.9 2.6 10.3 86.3 52.1 45.6 0.3 2.2 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 1.0 5.1 12.8 90.5 56.7 47.5 0.9 2.3 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 1.6 4.2 12.0 82.6 50.6 45.0 0.5 4.2 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 0.7 2.3 12.0 86.4 52.9 45.8 0.6 1.9 4.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 1.7 3.6 10.7 76.4 46.9 43.2 0.5 4.2 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 1.5 4.9 11.3 91.2 61.0 46.7 1.6 3.5 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 2.4 6.2 16.6 94.1 53.3 48.8 2.5 5.6 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 1.1 2.7 9.4 80.5 50.4 44.2 0.5 2.5 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------