***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2012.-04.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.2 91.3 51.4 47.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 3.3 9.6 9.5 79.0 52.1 42.8 5.5 8.3 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.2 8.6 10.5 91.6 52.8 47.0 4.3 7.7 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 6.9 15.5 12.0 97.6 59.9 50.0 3.4 13.3 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.1 10.0 12.7 102.3 60.0 50.8 5.2 7.7 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.9 9.4 15.6 117.0 63.9 55.4 4.4 5.6 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 4.2 10.5 9.5 80.5 54.7 43.1 3.3 8.8 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.9 20.3 15.3 109.2 63.5 53.2 12.9 16.5 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.5 12.8 13.2 106.1 62.3 52.4 2.9 6.3 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.1 13.4 15.0 110.5 63.6 53.6 7.1 9.6 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 2.9 7.5 12.7 104.8 63.1 51.4 2.3 5.3 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.3 12.2 13.4 108.1 65.0 53.2 4.6 6.3 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 9.4 11.5 14.7 109.9 62.7 54.3 3.9 7.1 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 18.5 21.5 14.0 98.4 58.2 50.5 7.7 15.5 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.0 13.9 10.1 93.2 57.9 50.5 0.7 7.1 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.2 12.2 13.4 107.5 63.2 53.1 2.1 8.4 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.0 8.5 9.2 77.4 52.3 42.7 5.5 7.8 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.6 11.1 17.3 111.9 62.5 53.9 6.6 9.8 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 3.3 7.2 9.8 81.3 51.3 43.7 4.4 7.1 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.1 10.4 20.8 105.8 61.5 52.3 5.1 8.8 11.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.5 11.8 101.8 57.1 50.9 2.5 5.1 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 4.5 10.3 9.8 77.4 51.2 43.6 5.4 10.1 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.8 7.4 10.9 88.4 52.8 46.4 5.1 7.1 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.5 11.7 14.0 103.7 60.0 51.1 8.7 10.8 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.2 10.8 12.4 94.6 58.0 48.7 1.8 7.1 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.8 10.0 14.9 108.6 60.2 54.1 2.6 8.3 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 2.7 7.8 11.5 90.9 54.4 47.4 1.8 7.0 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.4 11.4 100.6 60.4 51.4 1.9 7.7 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.7 17.0 18.8 109.4 62.8 53.1 9.7 13.8 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 3.3 8.3 9.6 81.6 52.5 43.7 4.3 7.9 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------