***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2012.-26.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.9 66.6 42.8 39.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.5 4.4 7.8 69.4 46.8 43.2 2.3 4.4 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.1 3.6 8.8 71.9 42.0 40.7 2.8 8.1 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 3.2 2.7 8.8 63.4 37.1 37.9 2.4 5.3 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.6 3.5 9.3 66.8 39.1 38.1 2.5 4.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.3 1.7 7.8 56.0 30.6 32.0 2.1 5.6 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.9 3.8 7.5 68.3 45.4 43.1 2.1 4.3 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.0 9.6 12.7 80.1 44.1 43.2 7.8 12.1 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.5 4.4 11.7 83.5 47.3 44.8 2.1 4.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 9.3 5.8 12.9 84.8 46.4 45.2 3.7 6.6 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.4 3.4 10.3 75.4 41.9 41.5 2.6 7.5 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.0 5.6 11.0 78.2 43.7 42.9 4.3 7.2 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.1 3.1 9.3 64.3 35.9 35.6 2.8 5.4 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.3 8.3 12.6 82.0 46.3 44.9 2.2 8.9 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 1.5 0.4 7.4 56.7 36.9 37.0 0.4 3.3 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 3.3 4.3 8.9 63.8 36.7 36.2 3.4 6.4 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.7 4.5 7.3 67.1 50.0 44.8 3.0 4.5 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 7.9 3.8 14.2 84.1 43.8 44.7 1.6 5.1 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.9 4.8 8.5 72.6 46.7 43.8 2.1 5.1 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.9 6.5 15.6 75.2 40.9 41.7 4.8 9.1 14.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.2 3.1 9.8 74.4 42.8 41.4 1.9 4.2 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 7.3 5.5 7.9 67.8 50.0 45.0 1.9 5.4 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 5.4 3.3 9.8 77.5 45.8 44.6 2.3 3.6 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.5 4.8 11.9 79.8 41.9 43.3 3.4 6.0 13.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.4 2.2 8.2 60.0 38.3 35.7 1.6 5.3 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.0 4.0 9.9 65.1 36.7 36.2 3.2 9.5 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.6 2.9 8.5 67.2 44.7 39.8 1.3 5.2 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 1.8 2.1 8.1 61.0 36.9 36.8 1.8 4.0 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 17.3 8.7 15.0 80.9 42.5 43.4 6.2 12.9 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.7 5.1 7.9 69.4 46.4 42.0 1.9 5.3 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------