***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2012.-18.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 10.9 -0.4 44.9 48.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 12.3 10.9 11.0 -0.2 45.3 49.9 9.9 11.6 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 13.2 12.3 11.1 -0.4 46.0 48.7 10.3 12.5 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 5.5 2.4 8.4 -1.4 42.1 40.4 1.3 4.3 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.0 8.9 -1.3 41.4 42.2 9.8 12.5 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.4 10.2 6.1 -2.0 38.6 36.6 8.8 10.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 11.9 10.6 10.8 -0.2 45.1 49.5 9.6 11.2 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 1.3 -0.3 7.3 -1.2 41.5 42.4 -0.8 0.1 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 13.3 12.2 9.8 -0.7 43.0 46.7 9.9 12.6 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.4 12.4 8.3 -1.0 43.1 44.3 9.8 12.8 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 13.1 12.2 8.7 -1.2 41.9 42.8 10.0 12.4 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.6 10.5 8.2 -1.3 39.8 41.4 9.4 11.6 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.4 11.6 7.2 -1.8 38.5 37.9 10.5 12.5 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 13.7 12.6 9.9 -0.6 46.8 48.3 10.3 13.0 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.6 11.4 9.0 -0.9 45.3 44.1 9.9 11.7 14.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 13.7 12.0 7.9 -1.6 40.2 39.6 10.8 12.8 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.4 10.3 10.8 -0.1 47.5 51.0 9.2 10.4 13.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.2 11.5 7.5 -1.1 44.5 44.3 10.2 12.3 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.5 11.3 11.2 -0.3 45.6 49.8 10.0 11.6 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.1 6.1 4.7 -1.4 42.3 41.6 4.9 7.0 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 13.4 12.4 10.6 -0.6 43.7 47.5 10.1 12.8 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 12.6 11.7 11.1 -0.1 49.3 51.3 10.0 11.8 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.9 11.7 11.2 -0.4 45.9 49.5 10.3 12.2 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.5 12.2 9.6 -0.7 45.3 47.2 10.5 12.6 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 12.7 11.5 9.2 -0.7 43.8 46.1 9.7 12.0 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 12.6 11.0 7.2 -1.6 39.0 38.8 10.0 11.7 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.2 11.0 10.0 -0.5 43.4 47.4 9.9 11.4 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.6 12.5 8.6 -1.4 42.4 40.8 9.3 12.8 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 4.5 6.1 6.3 -1.2 43.8 43.5 4.5 7.0 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 12.4 10.9 11.1 -0.3 45.0 49.2 9.8 11.6 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------