***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2012.-11.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.1 -1.1 35.1 41.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 7.5 9.0 9.4 -0.5 38.0 45.5 7.4 10.7 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 7.9 9.2 9.3 -1.0 35.2 42.6 8.1 11.7 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 -0.8 -1.6 6.3 -2.4 26.6 31.5 -0.4 3.4 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 7.0 6.4 6.9 -2.1 29.0 34.5 7.7 11.3 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 5.6 5.1 4.5 -2.6 24.0 31.3 7.6 10.0 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 7.1 8.5 9.2 -0.5 38.6 45.4 7.6 10.8 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 -3.2 -1.3 5.4 -1.9 32.6 36.2 -1.2 0.5 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 6.7 8.6 8.0 -1.4 33.1 39.9 8.5 11.2 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 7.3 8.3 6.5 -1.6 33.3 38.4 8.1 11.6 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 6.8 6.4 6.6 -2.1 29.2 34.6 8.0 11.4 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 6.0 7.1 6.1 -2.2 29.2 34.0 8.8 10.7 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 7.2 6.5 5.3 -2.5 26.1 31.4 10.4 11.5 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 8.1 8.8 8.3 -1.0 36.5 42.3 7.3 12.0 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 6.1 4.7 6.6 -2.2 26.1 32.0 5.5 10.9 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 6.7 7.6 5.9 -2.5 26.1 31.4 9.1 11.9 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 7.3 9.2 9.3 -0.1 43.8 48.2 6.4 10.6 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 7.2 8.0 5.9 -1.4 35.4 39.6 7.4 11.0 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 7.6 8.7 9.5 -0.6 37.6 44.9 6.6 11.2 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 2.8 4.3 3.4 -1.4 34.8 38.9 4.2 6.3 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 7.4 9.4 8.7 -1.2 34.8 41.1 8.7 11.3 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 12.0 10.2 9.6 -0.2 43.6 48.0 6.3 11.2 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 8.2 8.8 9.5 -0.7 36.4 43.6 7.5 11.5 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 7.5 9.7 7.9 -1.2 36.0 41.2 9.4 11.6 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 6.6 7.7 7.4 -1.4 34.4 39.1 7.1 10.6 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 6.6 6.3 5.4 -2.2 26.0 33.3 10.0 11.3 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 7.1 9.4 8.2 -1.1 35.6 41.4 8.7 10.8 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 6.3 5.0 6.4 -2.6 24.5 30.3 6.2 11.5 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 2.5 4.4 4.8 -1.4 35.2 39.4 3.6 6.0 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 7.3 8.2 9.3 -0.7 35.7 44.1 7.4 10.7 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------