***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2012.-04.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 9999.0 0.0 5.5 -3.5 20.7 24.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 5.6 5.7 5.8 -2.9 27.2 29.0 6.1 8.8 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 6.5 5.8 5.8 -3.4 21.9 26.0 7.3 10.2 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 -0.6 -1.0 3.6 -3.8 22.0 23.0 0.2 3.7 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 6.1 6.5 4.1 -3.7 21.0 24.5 8.1 10.6 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 74 26 0 100 5.4 5.8 2.4 -3.6 19.8 23.3 7.4 10.0 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 5.0 5.2 5.7 -2.8 27.0 29.0 6.2 8.5 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 -2.0 -2.1 2.9 -3.3 21.9 25.7 -1.1 0.7 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 7.4 6.8 4.8 -3.4 22.3 26.6 7.6 11.1 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 6.9 6.6 3.7 -3.2 22.7 27.2 7.6 11.2 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 6.9 6.3 3.8 -3.7 20.4 23.3 8.0 11.5 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 6.3 6.7 3.4 -3.7 20.5 22.5 7.8 10.0 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 7.1 7.3 2.9 -3.8 19.5 21.7 8.2 10.6 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 6.7 6.5 5.4 -2.8 30.5 31.4 6.9 11.3 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 3.5 2.5 3.8 -3.7 19.2 22.0 5.9 8.6 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 7.3 7.3 3.3 -3.9 19.5 21.8 8.9 11.7 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 5.3 5.9 6.1 -2.1 33.0 34.5 5.9 8.4 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 7.4 6.1 3.4 -2.8 24.7 30.2 7.3 11.1 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 5.2 5.5 6.0 -3.0 27.6 28.7 6.7 8.5 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 2.8 2.9 1.4 -2.4 23.7 30.9 4.2 5.5 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 6.6 6.6 5.5 -3.4 22.7 26.8 7.7 11.0 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 5.7 6.7 6.4 -2.0 33.4 34.8 6.6 9.4 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 5.9 6.5 6.1 -3.0 28.2 29.2 7.6 10.0 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 7.0 7.2 4.9 -3.0 26.3 29.2 7.6 10.6 14.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 5.0 5.7 4.2 -3.3 23.5 25.4 7.0 9.3 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 6.3 5.7 2.9 -3.6 17.9 21.1 8.8 10.5 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 6.1 6.1 4.8 -3.4 21.8 25.1 6.9 9.9 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 3.8 2.7 3.6 -4.0 19.5 21.3 8.2 9.6 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 2.9 2.1 2.6 -2.6 24.2 31.2 3.5 6.4 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 5.8 4.9 5.7 -3.2 24.1 26.5 6.5 9.6 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------