***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2012.-26.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 9999.0 0.0 3.2 -3.8 20.4 19.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 1.7 2.2 2.4 -4.3 17.8 18.0 4.4 5.4 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 97 3 0 100 2.9 3.1 3.4 -3.9 17.9 18.5 5.5 6.2 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 -2.9 -2.0 2.1 -2.7 27.4 29.0 -1.6 0.6 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 4.0 4.4 3.2 -2.7 27.8 28.5 4.5 6.5 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 6.9 4.8 2.9 -1.2 36.0 37.7 4.3 5.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 97 3 0 100 1.9 2.8 2.5 -4.0 19.7 19.1 4.1 5.4 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -0.8 -2.9 2.8 -1.5 35.2 36.4 -3.0 -1.8 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 4.3 5.0 3.9 -2.7 27.0 27.6 5.5 7.3 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 5.3 5.1 3.3 -1.9 32.2 33.7 5.1 7.5 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 4.9 4.5 3.3 -2.5 27.4 29.2 4.9 7.2 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 4.9 4.3 3.1 -2.1 29.1 31.0 5.0 7.4 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 5.2 5.5 3.6 -1.8 30.5 32.4 5.7 7.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 4.2 3.8 3.5 -3.0 24.6 25.2 5.1 7.9 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 3.5 3.6 2.5 -3.4 24.0 24.9 4.1 6.6 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 5.2 5.4 3.4 -2.3 27.6 29.9 5.9 7.4 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 87 13 0 100 2.0 3.7 2.9 -3.2 24.4 25.8 3.9 5.5 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.7 5.7 3.1 -1.4 36.7 37.7 5.2 6.3 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 99 1 0 100 1.7 1.9 2.6 -4.3 17.1 17.1 4.0 5.4 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 4.6 3.5 2.1 -0.2 48.2 47.0 1.4 3.8 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 86 14 0 100 3.4 4.3 3.9 -3.2 24.5 24.3 5.4 6.2 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 86 14 0 100 2.2 3.5 3.1 -3.3 24.4 25.0 4.2 5.9 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 96 4 0 100 1.9 2.2 3.1 -4.1 17.7 17.7 5.1 6.4 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 4.4 4.5 3.6 -2.6 26.4 28.1 5.6 6.7 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 3.2 3.7 3.1 -2.7 28.4 29.3 4.1 6.6 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 5.0 5.8 3.0 -1.7 32.4 32.5 6.0 7.2 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 87 13 0 100 3.0 3.8 3.2 -3.2 25.2 24.7 4.9 6.7 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 3.9 3.7 2.4 -3.2 24.6 26.0 3.9 6.7 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 5.1 2.6 2.9 -0.8 42.4 42.7 0.9 4.0 6.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 1.6 1.6 2.5 -4.5 16.0 15.9 4.1 5.7 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------