***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2012.-18.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -1.4 -2.1 13.9 20.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 -2.3 -2.9 -1.4 -1.8 18.9 25.4 -0.7 -0.5 1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 -0.4 -1.4 -1.5 -2.0 12.4 21.6 1.1 1.8 3.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 -6.5 -5.7 -3.1 -1.7 22.7 24.5 -5.1 -4.7 -2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 -2.6 -2.7 -2.9 -1.8 21.3 24.2 -1.8 -0.6 0.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 -2.9 -2.3 -4.1 -1.0 31.6 34.1 -2.0 -1.2 -0.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 -2.2 -3.1 -1.5 -1.8 18.5 25.3 -0.6 0.1 1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 -8.6 -8.5 -4.0 -1.4 28.1 29.3 -7.9 -6.7 -5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 -1.4 -2.1 -2.6 -1.9 17.2 23.6 -0.9 0.3 1.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 -1.1 -1.6 -3.5 -1.5 25.7 28.6 -0.9 0.2 1.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 -2.0 -2.7 -3.2 -1.7 20.3 24.0 -0.6 0.2 0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 -3.4 -3.9 -3.5 -1.8 20.7 23.7 -2.0 -1.1 -0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 -2.7 -2.3 -3.6 -1.5 25.4 26.2 -0.8 -0.1 0.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 -0.9 -1.1 -2.5 -1.6 20.5 27.1 -0.5 0.5 1.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 87 13 0 100 -2.1 -2.6 -3.0 -2.1 15.1 19.4 -0.8 0.4 1.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 81 19 0 100 -1.5 -1.4 -3.4 -1.7 22.5 23.9 -0.6 0.5 1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 -2.2 -0.8 -1.3 -1.4 29.5 31.7 -0.6 0.3 1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 -3.1 -2.8 -3.9 -1.1 31.8 34.4 -2.8 -1.7 -0.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 -2.1 -2.9 -1.5 -1.8 17.3 24.1 -0.8 -0.2 0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 -3.7 -4.7 -4.9 -0.5 37.9 41.6 -5.8 -4.2 -3.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 -1.9 -2.8 -1.9 -2.0 13.8 21.5 -1.1 0.2 0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 -2.0 -1.7 -1.2 -1.4 26.4 31.1 -0.9 -0.1 0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 -1.9 -2.5 -1.6 -1.8 16.4 23.2 -1.1 -0.4 0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 -1.4 -1.7 -2.7 -1.6 22.7 27.4 -1.1 -0.2 0.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 -1.8 -2.0 -2.5 -1.8 19.5 23.8 -1.5 0.1 0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 -2.2 -2.1 -3.3 -1.4 25.2 27.5 -0.9 0.1 0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 -2.1 -2.6 -2.0 -2.0 17.0 22.4 -1.0 0.3 0.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 84 16 0 100 -3.4 -3.6 -3.0 -1.9 20.0 22.2 -2.2 -1.1 -0.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 -2.6 -4.2 -4.2 -0.7 35.7 39.0 -4.2 -3.4 -1.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 -2.1 -3.0 -1.5 -2.0 13.6 22.5 -0.5 0.1 1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------