***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2012.-18.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 0.0 1.3 -0.8 42.4 42.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 -0.3 0.6 1.4 -0.5 44.8 46.5 -0.3 0.8 1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 1.6 2.5 1.1 -0.8 39.8 43.3 1.5 3.0 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 -4.9 -4.7 -1.3 -1.5 31.9 33.6 -4.6 -4.0 -0.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 -1.2 -0.8 -1.2 -1.4 33.3 35.8 -0.8 -0.5 0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 -1.8 -1.1 -3.2 -1.4 28.3 31.7 -1.0 -0.6 0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 -0.3 0.6 1.5 -0.4 48.0 47.3 -0.1 0.8 2.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -7.2 -7.7 -2.7 -1.5 28.2 35.5 -7.4 -5.0 -3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 0.1 0.0 -0.5 -1.2 36.6 39.7 -0.2 1.0 2.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 0.0 0.1 -1.9 -1.3 33.3 37.9 0.1 0.7 2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 -0.3 -0.3 -1.7 -1.5 30.0 34.7 -0.2 0.7 1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 -1.3 -1.1 -2.0 -1.6 27.2 34.0 -1.0 -0.6 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 -0.2 0.1 -2.3 -1.4 29.8 34.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 0.5 0.7 -0.3 -1.0 32.4 41.8 0.7 1.2 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 -0.1 0.1 -0.9 -1.6 27.0 33.5 0.2 0.8 2.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 0.2 0.3 -2.0 -1.6 28.8 33.0 0.6 1.0 2.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 0.2 1.0 1.5 -0.3 50.0 49.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 -1.8 -1.6 -2.4 -1.1 34.6 39.2 -1.6 -0.5 0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 -0.1 0.3 1.4 -0.6 41.6 45.2 0.0 1.2 2.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -2.7 -4.6 -4.0 -1.0 34.8 38.8 -4.7 -3.3 -1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 -0.5 -0.2 0.5 -1.0 39.1 41.5 -0.4 0.5 1.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 -0.1 0.7 1.6 -0.4 46.9 48.0 -0.3 1.0 1.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 -0.3 -0.2 1.0 -0.8 37.0 43.4 -0.3 0.6 1.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 -0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -1.1 34.2 41.0 -0.1 0.6 1.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 -0.1 0.3 -0.3 -1.0 38.7 40.1 -0.2 0.7 1.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 -0.3 0.2 -1.9 -1.1 31.3 35.7 0.3 0.6 1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 -0.1 0.3 0.6 -0.8 41.4 42.7 -0.3 1.1 2.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 -1.6 -1.3 -1.2 -1.6 28.1 32.8 -1.1 -0.3 0.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 -0.8 -3.4 -3.1 -1.1 33.3 38.9 -3.4 -1.5 0.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 0.0 0.9 1.4 -0.6 44.1 45.1 -0.1 1.0 2.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------