***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2012.-11.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 -0.2 -1.4 35.6 36.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 -0.9 -0.1 0.0 -1.0 38.3 39.4 -0.9 0.3 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 0.1 1.6 -0.3 -1.3 34.1 36.9 1.5 2.1 4.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 -7.3 -5.9 -2.6 -1.9 26.3 29.6 -4.6 -4.0 -1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 -1.9 -1.6 -2.3 -1.7 30.2 32.4 -1.5 0.2 0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 -3.0 -3.1 -3.8 -1.2 28.8 34.1 -2.4 -0.7 0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 -1.4 0.0 0.0 -0.9 40.5 40.2 -0.5 0.4 2.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 -9.5 -8.8 -3.8 -1.8 28.6 32.9 -8.4 -6.6 -4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 -1.6 -0.4 -1.7 -1.6 33.8 35.3 -0.4 0.8 2.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 -1.4 -0.4 -3.0 -1.6 31.5 35.2 -0.4 0.5 2.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 -2.3 -1.1 -2.8 -1.9 25.8 30.9 -0.4 0.5 1.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 -3.3 -2.8 -3.2 -2.2 24.6 29.1 -2.3 -0.3 0.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 -2.2 -1.8 -3.3 -1.7 26.8 32.2 -1.1 0.0 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 -1.0 0.3 -1.5 -1.4 33.6 35.8 0.2 1.0 2.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 -1.7 -2.5 -2.6 -2.2 16.6 25.8 -1.0 1.1 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 -0.9 -1.0 -3.1 -1.9 26.4 30.5 -0.5 0.9 2.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 -1.0 0.3 0.2 -0.6 44.1 43.2 -0.7 0.6 2.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 -3.2 -2.1 -3.3 -1.3 36.4 37.5 -2.1 -1.2 0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 -1.2 0.1 -0.1 -1.1 35.7 38.2 0.0 0.4 1.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -3.5 -5.5 -4.7 -0.9 39.4 41.8 -6.5 -4.1 -2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 -1.4 -0.6 -0.7 -1.4 36.2 36.5 -0.6 1.1 1.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 0.8 0.0 0.2 -0.6 41.5 42.3 -0.9 0.2 2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 -1.2 -0.5 -0.4 -1.2 33.4 36.6 -0.6 0.4 1.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 -1.2 -0.6 -1.9 -1.5 33.8 35.7 -0.6 0.4 1.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 -1.2 -0.5 -1.7 -1.5 32.1 34.4 -0.4 0.8 1.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 -2.1 -2.0 -3.0 -1.6 25.6 33.5 -1.5 0.1 1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 -1.2 -0.3 -0.9 -1.4 34.8 35.6 -0.6 0.8 1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 -3.2 -3.2 -2.6 -2.0 22.6 27.6 -2.0 -0.4 0.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 -1.6 -3.1 -3.9 -1.1 38.2 39.2 -4.3 -2.1 -0.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 -1.0 0.0 -0.1 -1.2 36.8 38.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------