***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.02.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 37.7 44.1 62.0 131.7 77.3 69.3 18.9 21.8 35.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 36.8 42.1 54.7 136.0 76.5 67.6 15.4 27.8 39.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 48.0 52.1 60.6 130.5 75.7 69.1 23.9 30.0 43.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 54.4 64.3 79.9 145.4 83.0 74.3 24.0 33.9 52.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 50.8 55.0 67.8 127.3 73.0 67.8 24.6 32.6 47.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 42.8 42.1 66.8 124.4 73.6 68.1 20.5 31.4 40.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 34.5 36.6 54.1 136.1 76.3 67.0 16.3 28.7 32.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 71.1 74.5 70.5 121.3 71.1 66.3 45.1 57.7 72.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 41.4 42.1 67.6 126.2 71.9 67.7 19.4 31.5 40.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 47.2 44.7 70.7 121.5 70.8 66.4 28.0 39.0 41.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 40.0 40.8 65.4 122.4 70.6 65.6 22.0 33.2 39.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 43.0 43.9 65.4 124.1 73.4 67.1 24.1 31.7 36.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 46.6 49.2 69.6 123.2 73.4 67.8 22.3 35.8 43.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 65.6 69.5 70.7 121.5 70.8 66.2 33.8 45.7 65.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 54.3 83.8 80.7 160.2 86.2 75.6 15.6 28.8 52.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 42.7 43.2 66.3 122.8 71.1 66.2 22.2 31.3 40.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 44 56 100 35.2 41.4 53.0 135.3 75.2 66.7 15.0 27.0 36.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 47.2 44.5 72.7 119.4 71.0 66.2 23.9 38.9 41.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 36.4 43.0 56.1 134.4 76.2 67.9 19.8 26.0 39.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 43.9 44.6 86.4 117.2 68.2 63.9 24.4 30.3 41.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 47.8 50.8 64.9 128.5 74.6 69.3 17.0 35.4 47.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 35.3 38.3 55.9 135.0 76.2 66.9 17.2 29.7 35.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 37.6 42.7 58.6 129.4 75.9 67.6 19.2 25.6 34.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 59.0 64.4 67.6 122.5 71.2 67.1 32.7 39.4 54.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 45.9 55.4 70.9 130.5 77.1 69.7 22.1 25.8 48.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 39.7 36.9 67.8 125.8 74.0 68.4 23.5 31.3 35.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 41.8 46.7 64.9 130.2 76.0 68.7 18.8 23.3 38.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 55.4 68.3 76.8 147.3 82.6 73.5 14.6 25.3 44.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 73.6 78.7 76.6 118.0 69.7 65.2 41.1 52.2 77.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 41.4 47.3 56.2 134.4 76.5 67.6 15.6 32.7 37.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------