***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 3.1 4.1 14.8 121.1 68.7 57.3 0.5 2.4 3.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 3.7 3.9 12.5 118.3 68.2 59.1 1.1 2.5 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.5 13.4 113.3 66.1 55.3 1.9 4.5 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 7.0 10.2 16.6 120.2 68.3 58.4 3.1 5.8 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 4.8 7.5 15.5 116.0 67.9 57.4 1.4 3.5 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.1 5.0 15.8 111.2 60.5 55.8 2.2 3.7 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 5.5 5.9 12.9 123.5 71.0 60.4 0.8 2.3 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 13.3 16.2 15.9 111.4 66.8 57.6 10.4 12.4 16.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.3 7.8 15.5 114.8 65.8 57.3 2.0 4.9 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.4 11.6 16.2 112.6 65.8 57.4 3.8 5.9 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 6.3 8.3 14.5 110.6 65.9 56.4 1.9 4.3 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.9 8.2 14.5 111.0 67.2 56.7 2.5 3.9 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 4.9 4.6 16.0 111.1 62.3 55.4 3.3 4.0 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 6.8 7.5 15.8 108.1 61.0 54.9 2.7 4.9 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 2.7 3.4 16.0 121.2 67.6 59.1 0.0 1.3 3.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.7 4.9 15.3 111.4 63.7 56.2 1.8 3.8 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 3.6 5.0 12.4 120.7 70.0 61.2 0.5 2.8 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 6.7 8.6 17.2 114.6 65.4 56.7 1.9 5.3 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 4.1 6.9 12.5 115.2 66.5 57.7 0.8 2.5 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 7.1 8.0 20.8 115.2 66.4 57.7 3.5 6.3 7.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.8 6.3 14.5 113.9 64.9 55.6 0.9 5.1 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.0 5.8 12.8 119.4 68.9 59.6 0.2 2.2 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 3.7 4.4 12.8 109.9 63.8 55.5 0.4 2.2 4.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 7.0 7.0 15.1 109.8 62.6 54.2 2.6 4.8 8.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.6 6.9 16.5 119.4 66.2 57.6 1.2 3.8 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.6 6.5 15.1 108.5 62.4 54.3 1.1 3.0 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 4.8 7.0 15.7 122.5 69.0 57.9 1.1 3.3 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 4.1 5.8 16.0 119.2 67.2 58.5 0.6 2.4 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 12.4 14.7 18.2 114.9 65.8 56.7 6.0 10.0 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 3.7 4.2 13.1 118.9 68.3 58.5 0.9 3.0 4.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------