***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2018.-11.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 6.2 7.3 17.7 138.7 73.2 64.9 1.1 5.7 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 2.7 6.0 14.0 123.3 67.3 61.2 0.7 1.4 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 6.9 6.6 16.9 130.4 68.8 62.6 1.0 5.9 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 7.7 14.6 19.5 141.7 73.4 64.2 3.4 5.8 8.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 6.3 13.4 19.3 138.8 72.8 64.3 1.3 4.8 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 5.7 12.4 17.4 121.4 69.7 58.4 0.3 2.8 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 3.4 5.3 13.9 127.3 68.1 61.7 0.4 2.1 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 16.4 22.4 19.8 130.8 71.5 60.6 6.7 13.8 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 5.1 11.9 20.3 137.2 73.3 63.8 0.2 3.5 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 6.5 11.3 20.6 130.5 72.2 61.1 0.6 4.5 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 6.9 12.8 17.8 130.9 70.2 61.8 0.7 4.9 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 5.6 9.7 17.6 130.6 70.4 60.8 0.0 4.3 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 7.8 10.7 17.7 122.8 69.2 59.2 0.9 6.4 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 9.1 12.0 18.6 113.1 63.8 58.0 0.8 4.6 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 5.3 10.3 18.0 139.9 74.2 61.7 1.1 3.4 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.8 9.7 17.0 123.7 69.7 59.7 1.4 5.3 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 2.9 4.1 12.8 118.2 64.6 60.1 0.4 1.8 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 7.4 15.7 21.1 124.8 69.0 58.9 0.9 4.5 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 4.9 6.2 14.3 121.0 66.5 60.7 0.8 2.9 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 5.0 9.3 25.7 129.9 70.5 58.7 0.5 3.0 8.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 10.0 11.1 19.3 140.8 74.0 65.6 1.0 2.2 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 3.3 4.8 13.2 112.4 64.2 59.0 0.6 2.0 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 4.2 8.3 15.1 117.4 64.6 59.9 0.3 2.3 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 8.4 14.0 19.1 122.8 67.7 59.8 1.2 4.7 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 7.1 8.5 20.5 144.1 75.9 67.2 0.8 3.7 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 4.1 9.2 16.6 119.1 66.5 58.0 0.4 2.2 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 7.6 8.2 18.8 140.2 73.2 65.9 1.1 4.4 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 4.9 10.0 18.1 136.7 73.6 62.0 1.5 3.5 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 10.4 17.2 22.0 122.9 67.4 57.8 2.0 6.4 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 3.2 6.6 14.9 127.4 68.1 61.8 0.5 1.7 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------