***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.02.2018.-04.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.9 8.3 11.5 101.6 59.0 50.4 1.1 5.9 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.6 11.6 10.3 104.0 62.8 48.9 4.3 9.1 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.2 9.2 11.0 98.6 58.4 48.6 3.8 6.9 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 14.1 16.4 13.5 100.4 62.5 50.9 2.8 12.4 17.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.5 9.9 12.7 97.2 58.0 51.1 5.1 8.6 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.1 12.4 95.7 55.8 50.3 4.0 5.9 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.8 13.5 10.1 102.4 62.8 48.2 1.4 9.0 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 17.5 15.6 13.2 95.4 58.3 50.0 8.8 14.7 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.0 8.5 12.1 93.3 56.0 48.8 2.7 5.2 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.7 12.4 91.3 56.8 48.8 5.0 8.4 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.5 5.7 12.2 91.8 56.5 49.2 2.2 5.4 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.1 11.3 12.9 98.9 59.0 51.3 3.1 5.5 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 4.1 7.8 11.9 85.2 50.9 45.9 3.2 7.5 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 15.6 12.6 13.4 93.9 56.1 48.3 6.3 11.9 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.9 20.3 13.5 109.3 65.9 50.7 0.8 8.4 20.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.2 8.5 12.0 89.8 55.0 47.9 1.9 8.4 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.9 12.6 10.5 105.4 63.0 48.7 5.5 7.8 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.1 10.1 13.0 90.1 56.5 48.2 5.4 8.8 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.8 12.0 10.6 104.0 61.5 49.4 4.0 6.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.3 9.2 17.0 91.1 57.3 48.2 4.0 7.6 11.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.1 11.5 12.0 97.2 59.2 49.0 2.8 5.6 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 6.2 13.2 11.2 106.9 64.0 49.6 5.6 10.7 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.4 11.3 102.8 58.8 50.2 3.9 5.8 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.6 9.0 12.4 92.9 56.6 47.7 5.9 8.6 10.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 1.7 10.2 13.4 98.3 59.0 50.3 1.4 3.4 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.4 9.8 14.1 101.6 58.6 52.1 2.7 8.3 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.9 11.6 12.1 98.7 58.6 50.0 1.4 6.0 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.4 13.5 13.2 104.8 64.6 52.3 1.9 8.1 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 6.2 14.0 14.5 89.7 56.0 47.9 7.6 11.7 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.1 10.3 101.6 62.0 48.8 3.3 9.3 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------