***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.02.2018.-25.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 8.8 12.4 18.0 167.1 82.1 69.4 3.4 5.2 9.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 9.2 13.7 17.9 212.8 88.2 73.5 1.0 4.4 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 12.6 19.3 19.2 184.5 83.7 72.5 2.9 6.7 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 9.6 20.4 30.3 217.5 86.0 78.2 3.4 5.9 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 14.7 20.0 20.4 156.6 78.9 70.6 3.8 6.1 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 14.5 17.9 21.1 174.6 80.7 73.3 2.0 8.8 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 8.3 12.9 17.1 202.3 85.7 71.1 1.9 3.9 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 21.1 25.3 21.6 144.4 76.2 69.0 8.6 12.5 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 11.5 14.2 19.7 160.2 79.1 71.2 2.7 4.9 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 12.5 16.3 21.5 149.7 77.6 70.0 3.6 4.8 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 12.1 17.4 20.9 155.9 79.1 70.2 2.4 3.1 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 13.6 17.0 20.4 155.4 77.5 70.1 2.1 5.2 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 15.9 23.2 23.9 175.6 83.9 74.0 3.1 7.8 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 15.9 19.9 22.9 177.6 80.5 75.0 2.2 6.5 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 10.7 26.4 33.2 279.0 90.0 81.4 0.6 2.9 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 9.9 14.6 21.9 167.3 80.7 72.2 3.0 6.6 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 9.6 19.4 17.3 213.9 89.1 70.6 1.1 3.8 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 12.3 15.3 21.5 147.7 76.5 70.8 2.9 5.5 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 10.1 14.0 18.7 211.1 87.9 74.4 1.4 3.1 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 16.6 16.5 23.0 130.9 72.2 67.8 4.3 9.7 15.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 11.8 14.7 19.1 163.3 80.3 70.8 2.0 4.9 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 9.2 18.0 18.8 219.6 88.9 71.6 0.9 3.8 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 7.6 12.1 19.5 198.1 85.8 74.3 2.2 3.5 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 14.1 20.1 21.0 167.5 80.7 72.9 3.6 5.4 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 11.4 15.3 20.5 161.7 80.0 69.1 2.5 5.9 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 12.2 15.3 22.0 180.7 80.5 74.4 3.3 8.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 10.7 15.3 18.3 161.5 81.1 68.2 1.7 4.0 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 13.9 25.3 29.5 229.3 85.9 78.1 1.4 3.1 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 27.8 33.4 22.0 145.5 76.2 70.7 6.4 13.1 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 9.9 17.4 17.9 199.8 85.4 73.0 1.3 4.1 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------