***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.02.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 6.6 6.7 7.1 -2.2 22.0 27.5 7.6 9.9 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 6.4 6.1 7.0 -2.3 19.8 25.6 6.7 9.4 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 7.1 6.5 7.4 -2.2 22.2 27.6 7.6 9.9 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 -0.8 -1.2 3.9 -2.7 17.8 24.9 0.7 1.6 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 6.9 6.5 5.7 -2.3 21.6 28.3 7.9 9.7 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 6.5 7.3 4.6 -1.6 29.5 33.0 7.5 8.4 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 6.2 5.8 7.0 -2.2 21.2 25.8 6.6 9.2 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 -1.7 -1.7 4.7 -1.8 28.0 31.0 -1.4 0.0 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 7.4 7.6 6.5 -2.1 24.1 29.4 8.1 10.2 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 7.6 7.6 5.4 -2.0 26.5 30.2 8.2 10.5 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 7.0 7.7 6.0 -2.0 25.4 30.0 8.5 9.7 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 7.2 7.4 5.6 -1.8 28.1 31.4 7.8 9.4 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 8.1 8.2 5.7 -1.6 29.6 33.2 8.4 10.0 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 6.9 7.1 6.5 -2.2 24.2 28.6 8.2 10.5 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 6.1 5.7 5.2 -2.6 19.3 26.0 6.7 8.5 11.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 7.8 8.4 5.6 -1.9 26.2 30.9 8.9 10.2 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 5.8 4.8 6.7 -2.4 17.7 24.0 6.4 9.0 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 7.3 7.3 5.2 -1.9 27.2 31.2 7.5 9.9 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 6.4 5.7 7.2 -2.3 20.1 26.4 6.8 9.3 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 3.3 3.2 3.3 -1.5 29.8 33.6 3.5 4.7 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 7.3 6.9 7.1 -2.2 22.7 28.1 8.1 10.2 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 6.5 5.4 6.9 -2.4 16.1 24.0 6.8 9.4 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 7.2 6.3 7.5 -2.2 21.8 28.2 7.5 10.3 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 7.7 6.9 6.5 -2.1 24.9 29.4 8.2 10.4 12.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 6.7 6.0 5.6 -2.3 21.3 27.2 7.2 8.8 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 8.1 7.9 5.1 -1.3 31.8 35.2 8.1 9.3 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 6.8 7.0 6.6 -2.1 22.4 27.8 7.4 9.7 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 6.1 5.8 4.6 -2.6 18.4 25.9 7.5 8.7 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 3.2 2.9 4.6 -1.7 28.7 32.2 3.2 4.9 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 6.3 6.4 7.1 -2.2 20.8 26.5 6.8 9.2 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------