***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9.2 10.9 10.7 -0.3 43.9 45.3 9.9 11.4 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 9.9 10.5 10.6 -0.4 41.6 44.5 9.8 11.5 14.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 10.0 11.2 11.2 -0.3 44.3 46.2 10.0 12.4 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 1.4 2.4 7.9 -0.7 42.4 44.2 1.2 4.2 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 9.6 12.0 9.2 -0.3 46.6 46.4 10.2 12.8 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 8.3 10.9 7.7 0.1 51.7 49.7 8.7 10.9 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 9.4 10.1 10.6 -0.4 41.2 44.4 9.4 10.9 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -1.1 0.6 8.1 0.0 51.2 48.6 -0.8 0.5 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 9.8 12.5 9.9 -0.2 49.8 47.3 9.8 12.5 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 9.4 12.6 8.9 0.0 50.7 48.3 9.9 12.6 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 9.4 12.7 9.2 -0.1 48.9 47.8 9.9 12.8 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 9.0 11.9 8.9 -0.1 49.6 48.6 9.2 11.9 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 10.4 12.7 8.3 0.0 51.1 49.5 10.5 12.6 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.6 12.7 10.1 -0.1 46.9 47.7 10.5 13.0 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 8.7 10.5 8.5 -0.8 40.5 43.3 10.3 12.4 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 10.1 12.8 8.8 -0.1 49.1 48.2 10.3 12.9 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 8.7 9.9 10.5 -0.4 42.1 44.4 9.3 10.4 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 10.1 12.5 8.8 0.0 50.1 48.9 9.7 12.5 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 9.8 10.6 10.9 -0.3 42.6 45.5 10.2 11.7 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.8 6.9 6.0 0.0 50.2 48.9 5.5 6.9 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 9.9 12.4 10.6 -0.2 47.7 46.6 10.3 12.7 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 9.7 11.0 10.6 -0.4 41.7 45.0 9.8 11.8 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.7 10.9 11.2 -0.1 44.3 47.1 10.8 11.9 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 10.6 12.7 10.1 -0.1 48.2 47.9 10.3 12.7 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 9.2 11.3 9.0 -0.4 45.3 45.0 9.6 11.9 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 9.7 11.9 8.0 0.1 51.9 50.2 9.9 11.7 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 9.4 11.0 10.0 -0.3 44.8 45.1 9.8 11.5 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 8.7 11.3 8.2 -0.7 42.3 44.6 10.2 12.7 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 4.9 7.2 7.8 0.0 50.4 48.9 4.4 7.2 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 9.6 10.2 10.6 -0.4 41.7 44.6 9.8 11.2 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------