***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2018.-11.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 5.0 5.9 7.0 -2.8 23.5 31.4 7.6 11.5 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 5.6 5.9 6.9 -2.9 20.6 30.1 7.2 11.0 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 6.3 6.8 7.5 -2.7 25.0 33.1 8.2 11.8 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 -1.1 -1.6 4.6 -2.8 24.7 32.3 0.7 3.7 5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 6.2 7.1 5.9 -2.5 26.6 34.6 8.0 11.6 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 6.2 7.9 4.7 -1.9 33.1 38.5 7.8 10.6 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 78 22 0 100 5.5 6.3 6.9 -2.9 21.3 29.4 6.8 10.8 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 -2.7 -0.7 5.1 -1.9 32.2 37.8 -0.7 0.9 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 6.4 7.8 6.6 -2.3 27.1 35.6 9.1 11.5 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 6.6 8.1 5.8 -2.1 31.2 37.4 8.2 11.6 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 6.5 7.5 6.1 -2.2 28.3 36.3 8.0 11.6 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 6.8 8.6 5.9 -1.9 31.5 37.8 8.7 11.2 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 7.9 9.6 5.3 -1.8 35.3 38.7 9.1 11.8 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 7.0 6.4 6.7 -2.3 28.0 36.2 8.5 11.9 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 5.8 4.4 5.2 -2.9 21.5 32.2 5.7 11.0 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 7.3 9.0 5.7 -2.1 30.0 36.7 9.3 12.1 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 5.0 4.4 6.7 -3.0 19.3 28.6 6.7 10.5 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 6.4 8.3 5.6 -1.9 33.9 38.6 8.0 10.8 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 5.5 5.7 7.2 -2.8 22.3 31.5 7.3 11.3 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 2.7 5.3 3.3 -1.7 35.9 39.1 4.9 6.3 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 6.9 7.1 7.1 -2.6 26.1 34.0 8.8 11.9 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 5.6 4.9 6.9 -2.9 20.3 29.6 6.7 11.4 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 6.2 6.2 7.6 -2.6 24.7 33.6 8.2 11.9 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 6.6 7.5 6.7 -2.3 28.8 36.5 9.0 11.8 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 5.9 6.4 5.4 -2.8 24.2 31.6 7.4 11.4 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 7.7 10.3 5.2 -1.6 34.5 39.8 10.2 11.5 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 6.3 6.9 6.3 -2.8 23.6 31.0 8.1 11.7 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 6.1 4.8 5.0 -2.8 23.9 33.2 6.9 11.4 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 1.5 5.0 4.9 -1.8 35.2 39.0 4.5 6.1 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 5.7 6.1 6.9 -2.9 21.7 30.7 7.2 10.9 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------