***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.02.2018.-04.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 6.5 5.6 6.0 -2.4 27.7 35.6 6.0 10.4 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 5.1 4.6 6.0 -2.6 26.5 34.3 4.9 8.3 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 6.6 5.8 6.4 -2.4 27.9 35.6 6.9 10.1 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 -0.8 -1.4 2.2 -3.4 22.9 29.8 0.2 2.7 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 6.3 7.1 4.6 -2.5 28.7 34.9 7.3 10.3 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 6.5 7.1 3.7 -1.8 34.9 39.5 7.0 9.6 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 4.9 4.5 6.0 -2.5 27.0 34.5 5.5 8.5 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 1.4 -0.9 4.0 -1.8 35.7 39.4 -1.1 0.6 2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 7.4 7.3 5.7 -2.3 31.6 36.4 7.3 11.0 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 7.6 6.8 4.6 -2.1 34.3 38.1 6.7 10.5 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 7.1 7.0 5.1 -2.3 31.8 36.4 7.2 10.5 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 7.2 8.4 4.8 -1.8 35.1 38.7 7.6 9.4 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 7.7 7.8 5.1 -1.7 34.3 39.3 7.7 10.4 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 7.0 6.5 5.8 -2.3 32.2 37.1 6.5 10.5 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 4.0 3.0 3.8 -3.3 22.4 29.9 5.0 8.4 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 7.8 8.1 4.6 -2.2 30.7 36.3 8.4 10.7 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 4.6 3.7 5.7 -2.6 25.5 33.7 5.0 7.5 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.8 7.1 4.5 -1.8 35.9 40.2 6.8 10.1 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 5.3 4.9 6.1 -2.6 27.0 34.8 5.5 8.8 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.0 4.7 3.1 -1.1 39.9 43.7 3.6 5.2 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 6.8 6.8 6.2 -2.4 28.3 35.9 7.3 10.6 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 5.3 4.3 5.9 -2.7 25.0 33.9 5.3 9.2 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 5.8 5.9 6.4 -2.4 28.7 36.1 6.9 9.5 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 7.6 7.2 5.8 -2.2 32.8 37.9 7.2 10.6 12.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 5.1 5.7 4.5 -2.6 26.9 34.3 6.4 8.4 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.1 9.2 4.4 -1.3 35.9 41.4 8.3 10.4 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 6.1 6.4 5.6 -2.3 27.9 36.0 7.1 9.4 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 4.3 3.2 3.1 -3.4 23.1 30.2 6.5 8.7 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 7.4 4.0 4.2 -1.4 37.5 42.0 3.4 6.4 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 5.6 4.7 6.1 -2.5 27.1 35.1 5.0 9.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------