***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.02.2018.-25.02.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 4.6 3.9 4.5 -3.1 26.2 26.3 4.4 7.1 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 2.9 3.2 4.5 -3.3 24.0 24.9 3.8 5.1 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 3.5 3.5 4.6 -3.6 23.3 24.6 4.6 6.2 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 82 18 0 100 -3.9 -4.1 0.7 -4.1 19.3 21.3 -1.6 0.2 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 3.8 2.9 2.9 -3.7 20.2 23.2 4.4 6.5 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 2.9 2.8 2.1 -2.8 24.0 27.5 4.1 6.3 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 3.1 2.5 4.5 -3.0 25.6 26.6 3.5 5.0 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 -5.2 -5.6 1.7 -3.6 19.4 23.0 -3.6 -1.5 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 3.6 3.1 3.9 -3.6 21.7 23.9 5.1 6.5 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 4.2 3.3 2.4 -3.9 19.3 22.6 4.8 7.0 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 3.9 3.0 3.6 -3.6 21.2 24.2 5.2 6.6 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 3.6 3.0 2.7 -3.3 22.2 24.9 4.7 7.1 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 3.9 4.5 4.0 -2.7 25.3 28.7 5.9 7.0 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 3.8 2.5 3.5 -4.2 18.2 21.4 4.8 7.4 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 3.7 3.4 3.3 -3.3 25.8 25.6 4.0 6.1 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 4.0 4.3 3.3 -3.1 22.6 26.2 6.1 6.8 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 2.6 2.5 4.0 -3.5 21.2 23.1 3.1 5.1 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 3.8 2.9 1.8 -4.0 16.7 22.1 4.5 6.1 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 3.2 2.2 4.5 -3.5 23.2 24.5 3.0 5.8 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 0.1 -1.4 0.8 -3.1 19.4 25.1 1.5 3.9 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 3.8 3.4 4.5 -3.7 20.4 23.4 5.0 6.4 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 2.5 1.9 4.1 -3.8 18.6 21.5 3.4 5.6 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 3.3 2.3 4.6 -3.5 22.2 24.6 3.9 6.2 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 3.9 2.8 3.6 -4.0 18.5 22.3 4.6 6.8 9.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 3.7 3.3 3.4 -3.3 24.5 25.1 3.5 6.0 7.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 3.9 4.2 2.8 -2.4 25.3 29.5 5.8 6.9 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 4.1 4.4 4.3 -2.9 27.6 27.1 4.7 6.3 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 3.4 3.0 2.0 -3.8 21.7 23.0 4.4 6.1 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 0.2 -1.3 1.5 -3.7 17.6 23.2 0.8 4.0 6.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 3.0 2.5 4.6 -3.2 25.7 25.9 3.5 5.2 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------